[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 August 15 issued 2330 UT on 22 Aug 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 23 09:30:26 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 23 AUGUST - 25 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.2 1323 UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Aug: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Active Region 2403 produced three M class solar flares
during 22 Aug. The largest flare was a short-lived M2.2 event
peaking at 13:23 UT. The activity of AR 2403 is increasing and
it will produce more M class flares during the next 48 hours.
There is a small chance of a weak X class flare. AR 2403 produced
a M1.2 flare peaking at 06:49 UT. A moderate Type II solar radio
burst occurred during 06:50 to 07:08 UT. The available SOHO LASCO
coronagrams show the associated CME, and the CME launched from
AR 2403 on 22 Aug, are not Earthward direct. A glancing blow
is possible in 3 to 4 days. Coronal Hole 684 has rotated into
a geoeffective location and a weak Corotating Interaction Region
(CIR) with subsequent fast wind is expected to impact Earth today,
23 Aug. At the time of this report, the solar wind seed is about
365 km/s, the magnitude of the IMF is about 9 nT, and the solar
wind density has increased by an order of magnitude to 10 particles/cm^3.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 11123212
Cocos Island 3 11112111
Darwin 6 11123212
Townsville 8 12233212
Learmonth 6 11223211
Alice Springs 6 11223212
Norfolk Island 7 11133212
Culgoora 7 11133212
Gingin 6 10123222
Canberra 4 00123211
Launceston 10 11233323
Hobart 8 11133312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Aug :
Macquarie Island 13 00154411
Casey 7 22322211
Mawson 16 52233241
Davis 11 32343121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1220 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Aug 20 Active
24 Aug 20 Active
25 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled during
22 Aug. A weak CIR followed by fast wind is expected to impact
Earth today, 23 Aug. The CIR will cause unsettled to active geomagnetic
conditions. A minor geomagnetic storm is possible. AR 2403 is
producing M class flares and will rotate into a more geoeffective
location early next week. A major geomagnetic storm is possible
before the end of next week.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
24 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Globally, conditions for HF radio wave propagation are
unusually depressed. Regional foF2 values are generally 10%-50%
below long term predicted monthly values. Propagation conditions
are expected to trend back towards monthly predicted values during
the 4 week period approaching September equinox.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Aug 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 60
Aug 80
Sep 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Aug 40 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
24 Aug 40 10 to 25% below predicted monthly values
25 Aug 45 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed
throughout the Australian region during 22 August. The conditions
are expected to be depressed again today, 23 Aug. The conditions
are expected to trend slowly back towards monthly predicted values
during the 4 week period approaching the September equinox.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Aug
Speed: 455 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 68400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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