[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 August 15 issued 2335 UT on 05 Aug 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 6 09:35:26 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 06 AUGUST - 08 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Aug: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels on 5 August.
The solar wind continued to decline from 450 km/s to 350 km during
the last 24 hrs. The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-5
nT and Bt reached levels of 6 nT during this period. No earth-directed
CMEs were observed for the UT day. The solar wind is expected
to remain weak over the next 24 hours (6 Aug) and then over the
next two days (7-8 Aug) is expected to strength due to the arrival
of a recurrent coronal hole. Very low levels of solar activity
may be expected for 6 August with some possibility of an C-class
flare on this day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11101111
Cocos Island 2 11100111
Darwin 3 21101111
Townsville 2 01101111
Learmonth 3 11110121
Alice Springs 1 00101111
Norfolk Island 1 11000011
Culgoora 2 01101111
Gingin 2 11000121
Camden 2 11101111
Canberra 0 00000010
Launceston 2 11001111
Hobart 1 21000100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00001001
Casey 6 23310112
Mawson 13 33211225
Davis 61 23292115
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Aug :
Darwin 18 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 6 2211 2203
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Aug 8 Initially quiet with a possibility of increased
activity towards the end of the UT day
07 Aug 20 Unsettled to active conditions with a possibility
of minor storms over the high latitude regions
08 Aug 15 Initially unsettled and activity. Possibly becoming
quiet towards the end of the UT day
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions were mainly quiet on 5 Aug.
Similar conditions are expected on the 6 Aug with a possibility
of unsettled periods towards the end of the UT. On the 7 - 8
Aug the magnetic activity is expected to reach unsettled to active
levels with possible minor storm periods at high latitudes due
to the anticipated arrival of a recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUF are mainly near predicted monthly values on 5 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Aug 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 60
Aug 80
Sep 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
07 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
08 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF are mainly near predicted monthly values with some
weak depression during the night across the Australasian region
on 5 August. Slightly improved conditions are expected for 6
and 7 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Aug
Speed: 441 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 59700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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