[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 August 15 issued 2349 UT on 04 Aug 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 5 09:49:30 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Aug: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels on the 4 August.
The solar wind continued to gradually decline from 500 km/s to
400 km during the last 24 hrs. The Bz component of IMF varied
between +/-5 nT and Bt reached levels of 7 nT during this period.
The solar wind is expected to further decline over the next 24
- 48 hours (5-6 Aug) and thereafter (7 Aug) expected to rise
due to the arrival of a recurrent coronal hole. Very low levels
of solar activity may be expected for 5 August with some possibility
of an C-class flare on this day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 12112012
Cocos Island 3 11111111
Darwin 4 22111012
Townsville 4 12212012
Learmonth 6 12222122
Alice Springs 5 12212022
Norfolk Island 2 02102011
Culgoora 3 12112011
Gingin 6 12112232
Camden 4 12212011
Canberra 2 01102011
Launceston 6 12223112
Hobart 4 12113011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 01122001
Casey 7 23222122
Mawson 24 34332246
Davis 17 24332235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 7 2331 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Aug 6 Quiet
06 Aug 10 Initially quiet with a possibility of increased
activity toward the end of the UT day
07 Aug 20 Unsettled to Active with a chance of minor storms
at high latitudes
COMMENT: Magnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet with
unsettled periods for the next two days (5-6 Aug). The magnetic
activity is expected to reach unsettled to active levels with
possible minor storm periods at high latitudes on the 7 August
due to the anticipated arrival of a recurrent coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Normal-poor Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Normal-poor Normal-fair Normal-fair
06 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
07 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions have been observed at times
during 4 August. These conditions are mainly due to low levels
of ionising solar flux. Moderately degraded conditions are expected
at times on 5 August, with slightly improved conditions for 6
and 7 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Aug 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 60
Aug 80
Sep 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Aug 55 Depressed 15-20%/near predicted monthly values
06 Aug 60 Depressed 10-15%/near predicted monthly values
07 Aug 60 Depressed 10-15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 29 was issued on 4 August
and is current for 4-5 Aug. Moderate depressions have been observed
across the Australasian region during 4 August. These conditions
are mainly due to low levels of ionising solar flux. Moderately
degraded conditions are expected on 5 August, with slightly improved
conditions for 6 and 7 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Aug
Speed: 501 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 109000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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