[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 August 15 issued 2349 UT on 03 Aug 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 4 09:49:18 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 04 AUGUST - 06 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Aug: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be mostly very low for
4 August. No geoeffective CMEs have been observed during 3 August,
however there has been increased CME activity observed from the
south-east limb suggesting there may be an active region that
will soon rotate onto the visible disk. An increase in solar
activity may be observed with this region over the next few days.
Solar wind speeds have declined slowly during 3 August as the
coronal hole solar wind stream abates.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 12112101
Cocos Island 2 12002100
Darwin 4 22102102
Townsville 4 12212101
Learmonth 4 12112202
Alice Springs 2 01102102
Norfolk Island 3 32101000
Culgoora 4 12212101
Gingin 5 12113211
Camden 4 12212101
Canberra 1 11101000
Launceston 4 12212111
Hobart 2 11110200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 01101100
Casey 10 33323211
Mawson 13 34332223
Davis 8 23322212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 12 4331 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Aug 6 Quiet
06 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet with
unsettled periods as the effects of a coronal hole wind stream
abate.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Significantly degraded conditions due to low levels
of ionising solar flux are expected to continue at times over
the next couple of days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Aug 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 60
Aug 80
Sep 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Aug 55 Depressed 15-25%/near predicted monthly values
05 Aug 55 Depressed 15-25%/near predicted monthly values
06 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Significant depressions have been observed at times
across the Australasian region during 3 August. These conditions
are mainly due to low levels of ionising solar flux. Degraded
conditions are expected to continue over the next two days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Aug
Speed: 574 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 150000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list