[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 August 15 issued 2330 UT on 02 Aug 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 3 09:30:26 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 03 AUGUST - 05 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Aug: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Very low levels of solar activity have been observed
over the last 24 hours. As anticipated, the solar wind stream
remained strong due to the continued effect of a coronal hole.
Solar wind speed mostly stayed between 550 and 650 km/s during
the UT day today. The Bz component of IMF varied mostly between
+/-5 nT, staying northwards for relatively longer periods of
time and Bt stayed around 6 nT during this period. The effect
of this coronal hole is expected to gradually decline over the
next 1 - 2 days. Very low levels of solar activity may be expected
for the next 3 days with some possibility of isolated C-class
event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Aug : A K
Australian Region 7 22313211
Cocos Island 4 22212200
Darwin 6 12313111
Townsville 7 22313211
Learmonth 8 32313210
Alice Springs 6 22313200
Norfolk Island 5 22203111
Culgoora 7 21313211
Gingin 8 32214210
Camden 8 21314201
Canberra 4 20203100
Launceston 8 21314211
Hobart 8 21314220
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Aug :
Macquarie Island 4 11203200
Casey 11 33323222
Mawson 23 54533323
Davis 17 43533222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 3211 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Aug 9 Unsettled declining to Quiet
04 Aug 8 Quiet
05 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Bz remaining mostly positive, the effect of the high
speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole did not
increase the geomagnetic activity to expected levels today. The
effect of the coronal hole is declining gradually, however geomagnetic
activity may still remain at unsettled levels on 3rd August.
On 4th and 5th August, the geomagnetic activity is expected to
stay at Quiet levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUF depressions of up to 40% have been observed over
the last 24 hours. These conditions are mainly due to low levels
of ionising solar flux and minor rise in geomagnetic activity
levels. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions may be expected for the next three days (3, 4 and
5 August) with slightly higher possibility of degradations and
MUF depressions on 3 August due to expected mild rise in geomagnetic
activity on this day and continued low levels of ionising radiation
throughout this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Aug 58
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 60
Aug 80
Sep 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Aug 60 5 to 20% below predicted monthly values
04 Aug 64 5 to 15% below predicted monthly values
05 Aug 64 5 to 15% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF depressions of up to 40% have been seen across the
Australasian region over the last 24 hours. These conditions
are mainly due to low levels of ionising solar flux and minor
rise in geomagnetic activity levels. Minor to moderate MUF depressions
and degradations in HF conditions may be expected for the next
three days (3, 4 and 5 August) with slightly higher possibility
of degradations and MUF depressions on 3 August due to expected
mild rise in geomagnetic activity on this day and continued low
levels of ionising radiation throughout this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Aug
Speed: 553 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 133000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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