[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 August 15 issued 2330 UT on 01 Aug 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 2 09:30:26 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 02 AUGUST - 04 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Aug: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Low levels of solar activity have been observed over
the last 24 hours, today's largest flare being a C1.5 event at
2005UT from region 2390(S14W79). As anticipated, the solar wind
stream remained strong due to the continued effect of a coronal
hole. Solar wind speed mostly stayed near 600 km/s during the
UT day today. The Bz component of IMF varied mostly between +/-6
nT, staying northwards for relatively longer periods of time
and Bt stayed around 7 nT during this period. The effect of this
coronal hole is expected to keep the solar wind stream stronger
on 2 and 3 August. The effect is expected to show gradual weakening
from late hours of 2 August. Very low levels of solar activity
may be expected for the next 3 days with some possibility of
isolated C-class event.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Aug: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 22111112
Cocos Island 5 2211122-
Darwin 5 2211122-
Townsville 4 22111003
Learmonth 6 22112321
Alice Springs 5 12101321
Norfolk Island 4 12111003
Culgoora 3 1210----
Gingin 6 2211132-
Camden 3 22111002
Canberra 1 11001001
Launceston 3 22112001
Hobart 6 22102321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Aug :
Macquarie Island 6 2111232-
Casey 11 34321320
Mawson 17 44333332
Davis 18 33333352
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 52 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 16 3312 3443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Aug 12 Mostly Quiet to Unsettled, isolated Active periods
possible
03 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Aug 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Bz remaining mostly positive, the effect of the high
speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole did not
increase the geomagnetic activity to expected levels today. Due
to the effect of this coronal hole, geomagnetic activity may
still rise to Active levels at times on 2 August. Geomagnetic
activity levels may be expected to be Quiet to Unsettled on 3
August and mostly Quiet on 4 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
03 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUF depressions of up to 35% have been observed over
the last 24 hours. These conditions are mainly due to low levels
of ionising solar flux and minor rise in geomagnetic activity
levels. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions may be expected for the next three days (2, 3 and
4 August) with slightly higher possibility of degradations and
MUF depressions on 2 and at times on 3 August due to expected
mild rise in geomagnetic activity on these days and continued
low levels of ionising radiation throughout this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Aug 58
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 60
Aug 80
Sep 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Aug 56 15 to 25% below predicted monthly values
03 Aug 58 5 to 20% below predicted monthly values
04 Aug 60 5 to 15% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF depressions of up to 35% have been seen across the
Australasian region over the last 24 hours. These conditions
are mainly due to low levels of ionising solar flux and minor
rise in geomagnetic activity levels. Minor to moderate MUF depressions
and degradations in HF conditions may be expected for the next
three days (2, 3 and 4 August) with slightly higher possibility
of degradations and MUF depressions on 2 and at times on 3 August
due to expected mild rise in geomagnetic activity on these days
and continued low levels of ionising radiation throughout this
period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jul
Speed: 483 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 181000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list