[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 31 Jul 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 1 09:30:24 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 01 AUGUST - 03 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jul: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Aug 02 Aug 03 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels over the last
24 hours. As anticipated, the solar wind stream got strengthened
by the effect of a coronal hole. Solar wind speed increased gradually
from 400 to approximately 600 km/s during the UT day today. The
Bz component of IMF varied mostly between +10/-8 nT and Bt reached
levels of 14 nT during this period. The effect of this coronal
hole is expected to keep the solar wind stream stronger on 1
and 2 August. The effect is expected to show gradual weakening
from 2 August. Very low levels of solar activity may be expected
for the next 3 days with some possibility of isolated C-class
event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 31 Jul : A K
Australian Region 9 22124222
Cocos Island 6 12123212
Darwin 7 22123222
Townsville 7 12123222
Learmonth 10 22224223
Alice Springs 10 22124223
Norfolk Island 7 -2123212
Culgoora 8 12124222
Gingin 11 22124323
Camden 8 12124222
Canberra 5 12013212
Launceston 11 22124323
Hobart 9 22103422
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jul :
Macquarie Island 12 22025322
Casey 12 23323323
Mawson 34 44323347
Davis 24 33333346
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 13 2211 2353
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Aug 20 Unsettled to minor storm
02 Aug 12 Unsettled to Active
03 Aug 8 Unsettled then declining to quiet.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 30 was issued on 30 July and
is current for 31 Jul to 1 Aug. As anticipated, the effect of
a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole
increased the geomagnetic activity to Active levels today. Due
to the effect of this coronal hole, geomagnetic activity may
remain elevated to Unsettled to Minor Storm on 1 August and then
gradually decline to Unsettled to Active levels on 2 August and
further decline to Unsettled to Quiet levels on 3 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
02 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUF depressions of up to 25% have been observed over
the last 24 hours. These conditions are mainly due to low levels
of ionising solar flux. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and
degradations in HF conditions may be expected on 1 and 2 August
due to expected mild to moderate rise in geomagnetic activity
and continued low levels of ionising radiation on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jul 58
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 70
Jul 71
Aug 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Aug 53 15 to 35% below predicted monthly values
02 Aug 56 15 to 25% below predicted monthly values
03 Aug 58 5 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 28 was issued on 30 July
and is current for 30 Jul to 1 Aug. MUF depressions of up to
25% have been seen across the Australasian region over the last
24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels of ionising
solar flux. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions may be expected on 1 and 2 August due to expected
mild rise in geomagnetic activity and continued low levels of
ionising radiation on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jul
Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 7.2 p/cc Temp: 38300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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