[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 August 15 issued 2356 UT on 06 Aug 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 7 09:56:14 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 07 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Aug: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug
Activity Low Low Very low to low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels on 6 August due to
low level flaring from region 2396. The solar wind gradually
strength from 350 km/s to nearly 600 km during the last 24 hrs.
During this period, the Bz component of IMF varied between +/-10
nT and Bt reached levels of 12 nT. No earth-directed CMEs was
observed for the UT day. The increased solar wind speed during
the UT day was due to the expected arrival of the recurrent coronal
hole. The solar wind is expected to remain high over the next
24 hours (7 Aug) and then expected to decline over the next two
days (8-9 Aug) as the coronal hole effects dissipate. Low levels
of solar activity may be expected for 7 August with C-class flaring
likely and remote chance of M-class flaring on this day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 06 Aug : A K
Australian Region 9 11243222
Cocos Island 5 11222221
Darwin 8 21233222
Townsville 10 21243222
Learmonth 9 12233232
Alice Springs 8 11233222
Norfolk Island 9 20342222
Culgoora 9 11243222
Gingin 11 12243232
Camden 11 11253212
Canberra 8 01243211
Launceston 13 12353222
Hobart 12 10125323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Aug :
Macquarie Island 21 01365321
Casey 18 23433253
Mawson 31 43443356
Davis 24 43403336
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 2101 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Aug 15 Active to Unsettled
08 Aug 12 Initially active declining to unsettled conditions
09 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 31 was issued on 5 August and
is current for 7-8 Aug. The geomagnetic conditions changed from
mainly quiet to active levels over the last 24 hrs (6 Aug). The
conditions are expected to remain at active levels for most of
7 Aug. Minor magnetic storms are possible over the high latitude
regions during this day. On the 8 - 9 Aug the magnetic activity
is expected to gradually decline to unsettled to quiet levels
as the coronal hole effects dissipate.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions have been mostly normal to fair during
6th Aug and similar conditions are expected for 7 Aug. Mostly
normal conditions are expected for 8-9 Aug.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Aug 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 60
Aug 80
Sep 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
08 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
09 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
COMMENT: MUF are mainly near predicted monthly values with some
weak depression over the northern Australasian region on 6 August.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days (7-9 Aug).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Aug
Speed: 399 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 47500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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