[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 April 15 issued 2349 UT on 28 Apr 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 29 09:49:52 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 29 APRIL - 01 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Apr: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Apr 30 Apr 01 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with just
a single C-class event, a C1.9 flare from region 2331 (S09W77)
at 0519UT. A notable filament eruption took place in the north
eastern quadrant of the visible disk, beginning around 02UT-03UT
as observed on the Learmonth GONG H-Alpha imagery. LASCO imagery
does not indicate any significant earth directed component. The
solar wind speed ranged between 290km/s to 350km/s over the UT
day. The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-5nT. Possible
increase in solar wind speed velocity over the next 24-48hrs
due to the influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed solar
wind stream. Very Low to Low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 11122111
Cocos Island 3 11121110
Darwin 4 21121111
Townsville 4 11122111
Learmonth 4 21121111
Alice Springs 4 11122111
Norfolk Island 3 10122110
Culgoora 4 11122111
Gingin 3 11122110
Camden 4 11122111
Canberra 3 11122101
Launceston 3 11121---
Hobart 3 11122110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Apr :
Macquarie Island 5 10133200
Casey 5 23222100
Mawson 10 43222212
Davis 55 19322210
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 0012 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Apr 9 Quiet to Unsettled
01 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Possible
Unsettled conditions with isolated Active periods possible for
29-30Apr should coronal hole effects eventuate.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today with
periods of both enhanced and depressed MUF's at low latitudes.
HF conditions are expected to stay mostly normal during the next
three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Apr 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 99
Apr 90
May 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Apr 90 Near predicted monthly values
30 Apr 85 Near predicted monthly values
01 May 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today over
AUS/NZ regions with variable ionospheric support observed at
Equatorial regions. Some periods of minor to moderate MUF depressions
for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Similar levels
of ionospheric support and near monthly predicted MUF values
expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Apr
Speed: 320 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 40300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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