[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 April 15 issued 2350 UT on 27 Apr 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 28 09:50:34 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 28 APRIL - 30 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Apr: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Apr 29 Apr 30 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
No significant flare activity was observed. The solar wind speed
ranged between 290km/s to 360km/s over the UT day. The Bz component
of IMF varied between +4nt and -6nT, with a sustained southward
period of -6nT between 07UT-12UT. An notable increase in solar
wind speed velocity is expected on 30Apr due to the influence
of a recurrent coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. Low
levels of solar activity may be expected for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 11121111
Cocos Island 1 01111001
Darwin 2 10111012
Townsville 4 11121121
Learmonth 2 11111011
Alice Springs 2 11111001
Norfolk Island 2 01121011
Culgoora 3 011211-1
Gingin 3 10111221
Camden 4 11122111
Canberra 1 00021010
Launceston 4 20122111
Hobart 3 00122111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 00032000
Casey 4 02222111
Mawson 9 20122243
Davis 5 01322121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0000 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Apr 2 Quiet
29 Apr 2 Quiet
30 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Quiet conditions expected for the next 2 days with
geomagnetic activity expected to reach Unsettled conditions on
30Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today with
some periods of minor to moderate MUF enhancements at high latitudes
as well as periods of minor MUF depressions on some mid to low
latitude locations. HF conditions are expected to stay mostly
normal during the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Apr 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 99
Apr 90
May 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Apr 90 Near predicted monthly values
29 Apr 90 Near predicted monthly values
30 Apr 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today over
AUS/NZ regions with some periods of minor to moderate MUF enhancements
particularly for Equatorial and Antarctic stations. Periods of
minor MUF depressions for Northern AUS regions. Similar ionospheric
support is expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Apr
Speed: 307 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 19800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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