[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 April 15 issued 2350 UT on 27 Apr 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 28 09:50:34 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 28 APRIL - 30 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Apr: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Apr             29 Apr             30 Apr
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
No significant flare activity was observed. The solar wind speed 
ranged between 290km/s to 360km/s over the UT day. The Bz component 
of IMF varied between +4nt and -6nT, with a sustained southward 
period of -6nT between 07UT-12UT. An notable increase in solar 
wind speed velocity is expected on 30Apr due to the influence 
of a recurrent coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. Low 
levels of solar activity may be expected for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11121111
      Cocos Island         1   01111001
      Darwin               2   10111012
      Townsville           4   11121121
      Learmonth            2   11111011
      Alice Springs        2   11111001
      Norfolk Island       2   01121011
      Culgoora             3   011211-1
      Gingin               3   10111221
      Camden               4   11122111
      Canberra             1   00021010
      Launceston           4   20122111
      Hobart               3   00122111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     2   00032000
      Casey                4   02222111
      Mawson               9   20122243
      Davis                5   01322121

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   0000 1102     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Apr     2    Quiet
29 Apr     2    Quiet
30 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Quiet conditions expected for the next 2 days with 
geomagnetic activity expected to reach Unsettled conditions on 
30Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today with 
some periods of minor to moderate MUF enhancements at high latitudes 
as well as periods of minor MUF depressions on some mid to low 
latitude locations. HF conditions are expected to stay mostly 
normal during the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Apr    87

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      99
Apr      90
May      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Apr    90    Near predicted monthly values
29 Apr    90    Near predicted monthly values
30 Apr    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today over 
AUS/NZ regions with some periods of minor to moderate MUF enhancements 
particularly for Equatorial and Antarctic stations. Periods of 
minor MUF depressions for Northern AUS regions. Similar ionospheric 
support is expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Apr
Speed: 307 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:    19800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list