[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 April 15 issued 2330 UT on 26 Apr 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 27 09:30:30 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 27 APRIL - 29 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Apr: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Apr 28 Apr 29 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Two C-class
flares were observed from region 2331(S10W53). These flares peaked
at 1149 UT and 2057 UT . The solar wind speed showed further
gradual decline from around 340 to 300 km/s through the UT day
today. The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-4 nT, staying
positive for relatively longer periods of time today. Low levels
of solar activity may be expected for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Apr : A K
Australian Region 1 11000001
Cocos Island 1 11010000
Darwin 0 10000001
Townsville 1 11001001
Learmonth 1 11100000
Alice Springs 0 10000000
Norfolk Island 1 11000001
Culgoora 1 10101001
Gingin 0 10000000
Camden 1 11000001
Canberra 0 10000000
Launceston 1 11001001
Hobart 0 10000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 12110000
Mawson 1 11100001
Davis 0 01100000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Apr 2 Quiet
28 Apr 2 Quiet
29 Apr 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today. Similar
geomagnetic conditions may be expected for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today with
some periods of minor to moderate MUF enhancements as well as
periods of minor MUF depressions on some mid latitude locations.
HF conditions are expected to stay mostly normal during the next
three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Apr 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 99
Apr 90
May 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Apr 95 Near predicted monthly values
28 Apr 95 Near predicted monthly values
29 Apr 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today in Aus/NZ
regions with some periods of minor to moderate MUF enhancements
as well as periods of minor MUF depressions. HF conditions are
expected to stay mostly normal during the next three days in
this region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Apr
Speed: 335 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 29800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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