[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 April 15 issued 2330 UT on 25 Apr 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 26 09:30:31 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 26 APRIL - 28 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Apr: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Apr 27 Apr 28 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Today's
largest event has been a C1.9 flare that peaked at 1849UT. The
solar wind speed showed further gradual decline from around 370
to 320 km/s through the UT day today. The Bz component of IMF
stayed mostly positive (up to around +3nT) today. Low levels
of solar activity may be expected for the next three days with
some possibility of isolated M-class event.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Apr : A K
Australian Region 0 10000001
Cocos Island 0 01000000
Darwin 1 10100002
Townsville 1 11000001
Learmonth 0 11000000
Alice Springs 0 00000001
Norfolk Island 0 10000001
Culgoora 0 10000001
Gingin 0 10000000
Camden 0 0-000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 0 11000000
Hobart 0 10000--0
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 22200000
Mawson 1 11100010
Davis 53 11110093
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2301 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Apr 4 Quiet
27 Apr 4 Quiet
28 Apr 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today. Mostly
quiet conditions may be expected for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today with
some periods of minor to moderate MUF enhancements as well as
periods of minor MUF depressions on some low and high latitude
locations. HF conditions are expected to stay mostly normal during
the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Apr 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 99
Apr 90
May 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values
27 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values
28 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today in Aus/NZ
regions with some periods of minor to moderate MUF enhancements
as well as periods of minor MUF depressions. HF conditions are
expected to stay mostly normal during the next three days in
this region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Apr
Speed: 378 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 74400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list