[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 April 15 issued 2330 UT on 24 Apr 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 25 09:30:31 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 25 APRIL - 27 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Apr: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Apr 26 Apr 27 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Several
C-class flares were observed, the largest being a C2.1 event
at 0843 UT from region 2326(N19W96). As anticipated, the coronal
hole effect now seems to have diminished. The solar wind speed
stayed between 360 and 400 km/s for most parts of the UT day
today, showing a slow decline over the day. The Bz component
of IMF stayed close to the normal value today. There are currently
6 numbered sunspot regions on the earth facing side of the solar
disk. Low levels of solar activity may be expected for the next
three days with some possibility of isolated M-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Apr: Mostly quiet,
isolated unsettled periods on high latitudes
Estimated Indices 24 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 22011000
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 2 22100001
Townsville 2 22011001
Learmonth 1 22000000
Alice Springs 1 22000000
Norfolk Island 1 11010000
Culgoora 2 12011000
Gingin 2 21011000
Camden 2 22011000
Canberra 2 22011000
Launceston 3 22021000
Hobart 2 21021000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 11020000
Casey 5 33210100
Mawson 11 35201222
Davis 8 24210123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Melbourne 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 1311 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Apr 4 Quiet
26 Apr 4 Quiet
27 Apr 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet levels today
with isolated unsettled periods on high latitudes. Mostly quiet
conditions may be expected for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today. Nearly
similar conditions may be expected for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Apr 104
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 99
Apr 90
May 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Apr 110 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 20%
26 Apr 110 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 20%
27 Apr 110 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today in Aus/NZ
regions. HF conditions are expected to stay mostly normal during
the next three days in this region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Apr
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 85300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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