[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 April 15 issued 2330 UT on 23 Apr 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 24 09:30:53 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 24 APRIL - 26 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Apr: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1007UT Observed lower African and European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Apr: 141/95
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Apr 25 Apr 26 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours.
Several C-class and one M1.1 flares were observed. The M1 flare
peaked at 1007 UT and came from region 2322 that has gone behind
the limb. A partial halo CME was observed in association with
this flare but it is not expected to have any earthward directed
component. As anticipated, the coronal hole effect has shown
further weakening. The solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease
from around 500 to 400 km/s during the UT day today whereas the
Bz component of IMF stayed within +/-4nT for most parts of the
day. The effect of the coronal hole is expected to show further
gradual weakening over the next 24 hours. There are currently
8 numbered sunspot regions on the earth facing side of the solar
disk. Low levels of solar activity may be expected for the next
three days with some possibility of isolated M-class event. ACE
EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
23/2145UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 13110001
Cocos Island 2 12110000
Darwin 3 23110001
Townsville 4 23110011
Learmonth 4 23111001
Alice Springs 3 13110001
Norfolk Island 2 13000001
Culgoora 3 13110001
Gingin 2 12110001
Camden 3 13110001
Canberra 2 03100001
Launceston 3 13110001
Hobart 3 13110001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 12010000
Casey 10 44321101
Mawson 16 35331114
Davis 10 33432001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 2233 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Apr 6 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Apr 4 Quiet
26 Apr 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet to unsettled
levels today with isolated active periods on some high latitude
locations. The activity is expected to gradually decline to unsettled
and then to quiet levels through the UT day 24 April and stay
mostly at quiet levels for the following two days thereafter
as the coronal hole induced solar wind stream is expected to
further weaken over the next 24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today with
periods of minor to significant MUF enhancements at some low
latitude locations. HF conditions are expected to stay mostly
normal during the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Apr 110
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 99
Apr 90
May 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Apr 115 Near predicted monthly values
25 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values
26 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today with
periods of minor to significant MUF enhancements in northern
Aus/NZ regions. HF conditions are expected to stay mostly normal
during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Apr
Speed: 535 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 130000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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