[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 April 15 issued 2330 UT on 22 Apr 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 23 09:30:36 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 23 APRIL - 25 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/-- 22/0844UT  possible   lower  South African

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Apr: 150/105


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Apr             24 Apr             25 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            145/99             145/99

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours. 
Several C-class and one M1.1 flares were observed. The M1 flare 
peaked at 0844 UT and came from region 2322 that just passed 
the limb. No earth directed CME was observed during this period. 
As anticipated, the coronal hole effect has started weakening. 
The solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from around 580 
to 500 km/s during the UT day today whereas the Bz component 
of IMF stayed within +/-5nT for most parts of the day. The effect 
of the coronal hole is expected to show further gradual weakening 
over the next 24 to 48 hours. Low levels of solar activity may 
be expected for the next three days with some possibility of 
isolated M-class event.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled. 
Isolated active periods on high latitudes.

Estimated Indices 22 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22332212
      Cocos Island         5   22221111
      Darwin               7   22322112
      Townsville           9   22332222
      Learmonth            9   32232222
      Alice Springs        8   22332212
      Norfolk Island       6   22321111
      Culgoora             9   22332222
      Gingin               8   21233212
      Camden               8   22332212
      Canberra             7   22322112
      Launceston          10   22333222
      Hobart               9   22333212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    14   21444311
      Casey               13   44332221
      Mawson              30   33553236
      Davis               15   33443222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              48   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           54   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             20   4333 4433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Apr    12    Quiet to Unsettled, isolated active periods possible
24 Apr     6    Quiet to Unsettled
25 Apr     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet to unsettled 
levels today with isolated active periods on some high latitude 
locations. The activity is expected to gradually decline to unsettled 
and then to quiet levels over the next two days and stay at quiet 
levels on the third day as the coronal hole induced solar wind 
stream is expected to weaken over the next 24 to 48 hours. Isolated 
active periods may still be observed on high latitudes on 23 
April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today with 
periods of minor to moderate MUF enhancements in low latitude 
regions. HF conditions are expected to stay mostly normal during 
the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Apr   113

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      99
Apr      90
May      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Apr   115    Near predicted monthly values
24 Apr   120    Near predicted monthly values
25 Apr   120    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today with 
periods of minor to moderate MUF enhancements in northern Aus/NZ 
regions. HF conditions are expected to stay mostly normal during 
the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Apr
Speed: 561 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:   173000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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