[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 April 15 issued 2338 UT on 29 Apr 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 30 09:38:21 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 30 APRIL - 02 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Apr: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Apr 01 May 02 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with just
a single C-class event, a C1.0 flare from region 2337 (S08W90)
at 1634UT. The solar wind speed ranged between 260km/s to 340km/s
over the UT day. The Bz component of IMF has been predominantly
southward over the last 24 hours, reaching only a maximum southward
value of -3nT. Possible increase in solar wind speed velocity
over the next 24hrs due to the influence of a positive polarity
coronal hole. Very Low to Low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11020101
Cocos Island 1 11010011
Darwin 2 11111001
Townsville 2 11021101
Learmonth 4 11121112
Alice Springs 2 01020101
Norfolk Island 1 10010001
Culgoora 2 11020101
Gingin 2 00021012
Camden 2 11020101
Canberra 1 00020100
Launceston 4 21021211
Hobart 0 000---01
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Apr :
Macquarie Island 4 00042000
Casey 3 12111111
Mawson 10 12201225
Davis 5 12311111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2122 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
01 May 5 Quiet
02 May 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly
Quiet conditions expected for the next 24 hours with possible
Unsettled to Active periods due to minor coronal hole effects.
Mostly Quiet conditions expected for 01May-02May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today for
mid to high latitudes. Periods of enhanced MUF's at low latitudes.
HF conditions are expected to stay mostly normal during the next
three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Apr 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 99
Apr 90
May 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Apr 90 Near predicted monthly values
01 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
02 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today over
AUS/NZ regions. Variable ionospheric support observed at Equatorial
and Northern AUS regions, enhanced during local day and minor
depressions during local night. Similar levels of ionospheric
support and near monthly predicted MUF values expected for the
next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Apr
Speed: 325 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 40100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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