[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 April 15 issued 2340 UT on 19 Apr 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 20 09:40:57 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 20 APRIL - 22 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Apr: 152/107
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Apr 21 Apr 22 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: There were a few low level C-class flares during 19
April. Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low with
the chance of moderate activity. No Earth directed CMEs were
observed during 19 April, however a weak slow moving CME was
observed during 18 April in association with a disappearing solar
filament. This CME is expected to impact the Earth in the latter
half of 21 April although the effects are not expected to be
significant. The effects may be slightly amplified due to the
presence of an anticipated coronal hole wind stream during this
period. Solar wind speeds have continued to decline slowly during
19 April as a coronal hole wind stream gradually subsides and
are presently around 400 km/s. Solar wind conditions are expected
to continue to decline slowly for 20 April and then increase
again slightly during 21 April in response to a coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 22012122
Cocos Island 4 12111121
Darwin 4 21011122
Townsville 5 22012122
Learmonth 5 22112122
Alice Springs 4 22012121
Norfolk Island 3 21011012
Culgoora 5 22112-22
Gingin 6 31111132
Camden 5 22012122
Canberra 4 22011122
Launceston 6 22022222
Hobart 4 22012---
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Apr :
Macquarie Island 5 22122111
Casey 8 33212122
Mawson 29 44333265
Davis 24 23323265
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 44 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 2232 2343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Apr 12 Initially quiet with unsettled levels in the
latter half of the UT day
21 Apr 18 Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
possible in the latter half of the UT day
22 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Mostly quiet levels were observed during 19 April. Mostly
quiet levels are expected for 20 April with unsettled levels
and isolated active periods possible during the latter half of
the UT day due to an anticipated weak coronal hole wind stream.
Activity may further increase during the latter half of 21 April
(UT) with the anticipated arrival of a slow moving CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for 20 April with
the small chance of SWFs and some mildly degraded conditions
at high latitudes possible during the latter half of 20 and into
21 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Apr 105
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 99
Apr 90
May 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Apr 105 Near predicted monthly values
21 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values
22 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for 20 April with
the small chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.5E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Apr
Speed: 541 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 115000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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