[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 April 15 issued 2340 UT on 19 Apr 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 20 09:40:57 EST 2015 

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 20 APRIL - 22 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Apr: 152/107


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Apr             21 Apr             22 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            150/105            145/99

COMMENT: There were a few low level C-class flares during 19 
April. Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low with 
the chance of moderate activity. No Earth directed CMEs were 
observed during 19 April, however a weak slow moving CME was 
observed during 18 April in association with a disappearing solar 
filament. This CME is expected to impact the Earth in the latter 
half of 21 April although the effects are not expected to be 
significant. The effects may be slightly amplified due to the 
presence of an anticipated coronal hole wind stream during this 
period. Solar wind speeds have continued to decline slowly during 
19 April as a coronal hole wind stream gradually subsides and 
are presently around 400 km/s. Solar wind conditions are expected 
to continue to decline slowly for 20 April and then increase 
again slightly during 21 April in response to a coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22012122
      Cocos Island         4   12111121
      Darwin               4   21011122
      Townsville           5   22012122
      Learmonth            5   22112122
      Alice Springs        4   22012121
      Norfolk Island       3   21011012
      Culgoora             5   22112-22
      Gingin               6   31111132
      Camden               5   22012122
      Canberra             4   22011122
      Launceston           6   22022222
      Hobart               4   22012---    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     5   22122111
      Casey                8   33212122
      Mawson              29   44333265
      Davis               24   23323265

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              14   (Quiet)
      Canberra            27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           44   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   2232 2343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Apr    12    Initially quiet with unsettled levels in the 
                latter half of the UT day
21 Apr    18    Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods 
                possible in the latter half of the UT day
22 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Mostly quiet levels were observed during 19 April. Mostly 
quiet levels are expected for 20 April with unsettled levels 
and isolated active periods possible during the latter half of 
the UT day due to an anticipated weak coronal hole wind stream. 
Activity may further increase during the latter half of 21 April 
(UT) with the anticipated arrival of a slow moving CME.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for 20 April with 
the small chance of SWFs and some mildly degraded conditions 
at high latitudes possible during the latter half of 20 and into 
21 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Apr   105

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      99
Apr      90
May      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Apr   105    Near predicted monthly values
21 Apr   100    Near predicted monthly values
22 Apr   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for 20 April with 
the small chance of SWFs.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.5E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Apr
Speed: 541 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:   115000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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