[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 April 15 issued 2331 UT on 20 Apr 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 21 09:31:48 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 21 APRIL - 23 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Apr: 150/105


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Apr             22 Apr             23 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            155/109            155/109

COMMENT: Solar activity was low today with one C1 flare observed 
at 1954 UT. Solar wind speed showed a gradual increase from 400 
to 450 km/s during the UT day today whereas the Bz component 
of IMF stayed close to the normal value for most parts of the 
day, showing fluctuations between +10/-5nT during the late hours 
of the day. The effect of a coronal hole and minor effect of 
a previously observed CME may strengthen the solar wind stream 
on 21 April. The coronal hole effect is expected to continue 
for the following two days thereafter. Currently 8 numbered sunspot 
groups are visible on the earth facing solar disk. Low levels 
of solar activity may be expected for the next three days with 
some possibility of isolated M-class event.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 20 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22112123
      Cocos Island         6   22111123
      Darwin               8   23222123
      Townsville           9   23122133
      Learmonth           10   23222233
      Alice Springs        5   22112122
      Norfolk Island       5   22111122
      Culgoora             6   22111123
      Gingin               8   22211233
      Camden               7   23112123
      Canberra             5   22111122
      Launceston           8   23112223
      Hobart               6   22112123    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     4   22012112
      Casey               10   34321122
      Mawson              13   44323122
      Davis                9   23332122

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           15   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9   3311 1223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Apr    18    Unsettled to Active with isolated periods of 
                minor storm
22 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active
23 Apr    10    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 20 April and 
is current for 20-21 Apr. Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet 
to unsettled levels today. The activity may rise to Active levels 
on 21 April with some possibility of isolated minor storm periods 
on high latitudes due to an expected combined minor effect of 
a CME and the effect of a coronal hole induced solar wind stream. 
Unsettled to Active levels of activity may be expected on 22 
and 23 April due to the effect of the coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
22 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
23 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on 20 April 
with periods of minor MUF enhancements on some mid to high latitude 
regions. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed from 
21 to 23 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Apr   106

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      99
Apr      90
May      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Apr   100    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20%
22 Apr    95    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20%
23 Apr   100    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10%

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on 20 April 
with periods of minor MUF enhancements in Southern Aus/NZ regions. 
Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed from 21 to 
23 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Apr
Speed: 419 km/sec  Density:    5.0 p/cc  Temp:    65300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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