[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 April 15 issued 2331 UT on 20 Apr 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 21 09:31:48 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 21 APRIL - 23 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Apr: 150/105
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Apr 22 Apr 23 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today with one C1 flare observed
at 1954 UT. Solar wind speed showed a gradual increase from 400
to 450 km/s during the UT day today whereas the Bz component
of IMF stayed close to the normal value for most parts of the
day, showing fluctuations between +10/-5nT during the late hours
of the day. The effect of a coronal hole and minor effect of
a previously observed CME may strengthen the solar wind stream
on 21 April. The coronal hole effect is expected to continue
for the following two days thereafter. Currently 8 numbered sunspot
groups are visible on the earth facing solar disk. Low levels
of solar activity may be expected for the next three days with
some possibility of isolated M-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Apr : A K
Australian Region 6 22112123
Cocos Island 6 22111123
Darwin 8 23222123
Townsville 9 23122133
Learmonth 10 23222233
Alice Springs 5 22112122
Norfolk Island 5 22111122
Culgoora 6 22111123
Gingin 8 22211233
Camden 7 23112123
Canberra 5 22111122
Launceston 8 23112223
Hobart 6 22112123
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Apr :
Macquarie Island 4 22012112
Casey 10 34321122
Mawson 13 44323122
Davis 9 23332122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 3311 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Apr 18 Unsettled to Active with isolated periods of
minor storm
22 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
23 Apr 10 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 20 April and
is current for 20-21 Apr. Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet
to unsettled levels today. The activity may rise to Active levels
on 21 April with some possibility of isolated minor storm periods
on high latitudes due to an expected combined minor effect of
a CME and the effect of a coronal hole induced solar wind stream.
Unsettled to Active levels of activity may be expected on 22
and 23 April due to the effect of the coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on 20 April
with periods of minor MUF enhancements on some mid to high latitude
regions. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed from
21 to 23 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Apr 106
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 99
Apr 90
May 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
22 Apr 95 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
23 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on 20 April
with periods of minor MUF enhancements in Southern Aus/NZ regions.
Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed from 21 to
23 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Apr
Speed: 419 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 65300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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