[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 April 15 issued 2333 UT on 18 Apr 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 19 09:33:42 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 19 APRIL - 21 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Apr: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Apr 20 Apr 21 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: There were a number of C-class flares during 18 April.
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low with the chance
of moderate activity. No Earth directed CMEs were observed during
18 April. Solar wind speeds have continued to decline slowly
during 18 April as a coronal hole wind stream gradually subsides
and are presently around 500 km/s. Solar wind conditions are
expected to continue to decline slowly during the next two days
and then increase again slightly during 21 April in response
to a coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Apr : A K
Australian Region 8 22222232
Cocos Island 7 12211331
Darwin 6 22211222
Townsville 8 22222232
Learmonth 8 22221331
Alice Springs 7 22221232
Norfolk Island 5 21221122
Culgoora 8 22222232
Gingin 8 22221332
Camden 9 22232232
Canberra 9 22232232
Launceston 10 22332232
Hobart 9 22232232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Apr :
Macquarie Island 10 11333232
Casey 14 44322232
Mawson 38 34322376
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 59 (Unsettled)
Canberra 95 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 23 5542 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
21 Apr 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly unsettled levels were observed during 18 April
as the effects of a coronal hole wind stream subside. Mostly
quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 19-20 April with isolated
active levels possible during 20 April due to an anticipated
weak coronal hole wind stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good conditions are expected for the
next few days with the small chance of SWFs and some mildly degraded
conditions at high latitudes during 20-21 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Apr 98
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 99
Apr 90
May 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Apr 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Apr 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Apr 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good conditions are expected for the
next few days with the small chance of SWFs.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.7E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Apr
Speed: 644 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 178000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list