[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 April 15 issued 2349 UT on 15 Apr 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 16 09:49:02 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 16 APRIL - 18 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: *YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Apr: 155/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Apr 17 Apr 18 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 165/119
COMMENT: There was some low level flaring during 15 April with
a C7 flare from region 2321 located in the NE quadrant. No coronagraph
imagery is currently available for this event. No Earth directed
CMEs were observed during 15 April. Solar wind speeds increased
during 15 April under the influence of a coronal hole wind stream,
reaching around 600 km/s. There were some isolated periods of
southward IMF during 15 April, reaching around -10 nT. Solar
wind conditions are expected to decline slowly over the next
24-48 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 15 Apr : A K
Australian Region 15 23234342
Cocos Island 13 23233342
Darwin 16 33244332
Townsville 17 33344332
Learmonth 21 33245343
Alice Springs 17 23245332
Norfolk Island 12 22234332
Culgoora 8 231-----
Gingin 20 32235443
Camden 16 23234343
Canberra 13 23234332
Launceston 21 23245443
Hobart 18 23235343
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Apr :
Macquarie Island 28 12156453
Casey 21 34534332
Mawson 40 24435375
Davis 28 13445363
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 8 (Quiet)
Gingin 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 41 (Unsettled)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12 0012 3434
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Apr 14 Mostly unsettled with isolated active levels
possible
17 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Active to minor storm levels were observed during 15
April in response to an increase in solar wind conditions under
the influence of a coronal hole wind stream. Storm levels were
observed at high latitudes. Mostly unsettled levels are expected
for 16 April with isolated active levels possible as the coronal
hole effects subside.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few
days with the chance of SWFs. Some mild depressions are expected
for mid-high latitude regions at times.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Apr 97
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 99
Apr 90
May 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Apr 75 Mostly near predicted monthly values with some
mild depressions for southern regions
17 Apr 85 Near predicted monthly values
18 Apr 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few
days with the chance of SWFs. Some mild depressions are expected
for southern regions at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Apr
Speed: 325 km/sec Density: 13.2 p/cc Temp: 37800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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