[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 April 15 issued 2345 UT on 14 Apr 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 15 09:45:17 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 15 APRIL - 17 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Apr: 147/101
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Apr 16 Apr 17 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Low level flaring was observed during 14 April. There
is the chance of moderate activity over the next few days primarily
from regions in the NE quadrant. There were a number of CMEs
observed during 14 April, including a backside halo. None of
these CMEs are expected to be geoeffective. Solar wind parameters
suggest the Earth is presently under the influence of a weak
coronal hole solar wind stream. This is expected to continue
for the next 24-48 hours producing slightly elevated solar wind
conditions.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Apr : A K
Australian Region 9 11213333
Cocos Island 7 11213322
Darwin 9 21213332
Townsville 10 22213333
Learmonth 9 11213333
Alice Springs 10 12213333
Norfolk Island 7 10112333
Culgoora 9 11213333
Gingin 10 11213432
Camden 9 11213333
Canberra 9 11113333
Launceston 14 21214344
Hobart 12 11313343
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Apr :
Macquarie Island 16 00125532
Casey 10 32312332
Mawson 21 11113536
Davis 8 22212332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A
Fredericksburg NA
Planetary NA
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 8 3322 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Apr 14 Mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods and possible minor storm periods at high
latitudes
16 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled levels were observed for 14
April with some isolated active periods over the Australian region
and isolated storm levels at high latitudes. Similar conditions
are expected for the UT day of 15 April with activity declining
slowly over the next 24-48 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few
days with the chance of SWFs. Some isolated mild depressions
may be observed at times.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Apr 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 99
Apr 90
May 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Apr 90 Near predicted monthly values
16 Apr 90 Near predicted monthly values
17 Apr 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 10 was issued on 13
April and is current for 14-15 Apr. Mostly normal conditions
are expected for the next few days with the chance of SWFs. Some
isolated mild depressions may be observed at times.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Apr
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 11.1 p/cc Temp: 21300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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