[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 April 15 issued 2344 UT on 16 Apr 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 17 09:44:12 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 17 APRIL - 19 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Apr: 150/105
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: There were a number of C-class flares during 16 April
from regions 2321 and 2324 located in the NE quadrant. Solar
activity is expected to be predominantly low with the chance
of moderate activity. No Earth directed CMEs were observed during
16 April. Solar wind speeds have remained moderate during 16
April under the influence of a coronal hole wind stream and are
presently approaching 700 km/s. There were some isolated periods
of southward IMF during 16 April, reaching around -10 nT. Solar
wind conditions are expected to remain elevated for 17 April
and decline slowly over the next few days hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Apr: Unsettled to
Active
Estimated Indices 16 Apr : A K
Australian Region 21 33443344
Cocos Island 14 23333333
Darwin 14 33333233
Townsville 19 33443334
Learmonth 24 33343355
Alice Springs 19 33343344
Norfolk Island 18 33343244
Culgoora 24 -3453344
Gingin 26 33343455
Camden 23 33453344
Canberra 23 33453344
Launceston 37 45554454
Hobart 27 34453354
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Apr :
Macquarie Island 58 45675554
Casey 22 44343344
Mawson 70 45554685
Davis 15 3-------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 18 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 8 (Quiet)
Gingin 88 (Minor storm)
Canberra 67 (Active)
Melbourne 171 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 36
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 28 2224 5463
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Apr 18 Mostly unsettled to active with minor storm periods
possible at high latitudes
18 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Active to minor storm levels were observed during 16
April in response to sustained elevated solar wind conditions
under the influence of a coronal hole wind stream. Storm levels
were observed at high latitudes. Mostly unsettled to active levels
are expected for 17 April with isolated minor storm levels possible
at high latitudes as the coronal hole effects continue.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few
days with the chance of SWFs. Some mild depressions are expected
for mid-high latitude regions at times.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Apr 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 99
Apr 90
May 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Apr 95 Mostly near predicted monthly values with some
mild depressions for southern regions at times
18 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values
19 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 12 was issued on 16
April and is current for 16-17 Apr. Mostly normal conditions
are expected for the next few days with the chance of SWFs. Some
mild depressions are expected for southern regions at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Apr
Speed: 483 km/sec Density: 8.4 p/cc Temp: 244000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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