[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 April 15 issued 2346 UT on 04 Apr 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 5 09:46:09 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 05 APRIL - 07 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Apr: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Apr 06 Apr 07 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day 04 April. Currently
(~2330UT) there is a ~10 degree erupting filament in progress
in the southeast quadrant ~(S25E27) with associated parallel
ribbon flaring (otherwise known as a Hyder flare). This flare
is the largest flare for the period and is presently peaked as
a C3-class X-ray flare. Analysis of whether Earthward directed
pending receiving LASCO and STEREO imagery. Based on location
of event it may have a glancing blow at Earth in a couple days.
The solar wind speed was strong for the UT day, 04 April, ranging
from 600km to 500km over the last 24 hours. The IMF Bz component
was mainly positive, going negative periodically for short periods,
the minimum over the last 24 hours was -5nT. Solar flare activity
is expected to remain at Very Low to Low levels for the next
three days. The solar wind stream is expected to slowly decline
to nominal levels over the UT day, 05 April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Apr : A K
Australian Region 9 22223322
Cocos Island 6 22112311
Darwin 6 22212311
Townsville 9 22223322
Learmonth 8 22222322
Alice Springs 7 22222311
Norfolk Island 6 21223211
Culgoora 8 22223222
Gingin 8 22223321
Camden 9 22223322
Canberra 8 22223312
Launceston 11 33323222
Hobart 8 22223311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Apr :
Macquarie Island 12 22135310
Casey 20 45432323
Mawson 29 44443363
Davis 22 33443254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 56 (Unsettled)
Canberra 56 (Unsettled)
Melbourne 75 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 12 3233 2323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Apr 6 Quiet
06 Apr 5 Quiet
07 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled for the
UT Day, 04 April. Isolated cases of Active to Minor Storm levels
observed in the Antarctic region. Magnetic conditions are expected
to return to mostly Quiet for the next three days as the solar
wind slowly returns to nominal levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Apr 115
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 99
Apr 90
May 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values
06 Apr 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Apr 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies for HF communications are
expected to be around predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced
for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Apr
Speed: 535 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 151000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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