[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 April 15 issued 2330 UT on 03 Apr 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 4 10:30:31 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 04 APRIL - 06 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Apr: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Apr 05 Apr 06 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day 03 April. The
largest flare was a C1.7 X-ray flare at 03/0726UT. Similar to
yesterday this flare was associated with a CME occurring on the
northeast limb. Solar wind speed went from moderate to strong
ranging from 450km to 600km over the last 24 hours. The IMF Bz
component was mainly positive going negative periodically for
short periods, the minimum over the last 24 hours was -8nT at
03/0735UT. Solar flare activity is expected to remain at Very
Low to Low levels for the next three days. The coronal hole high
speed wind stream is expected to remain elevated today, 04 April
and to slowly decline to nominal levels tomorrow, 05 April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Apr : A K
Australian Region 10 32223223
Cocos Island 6 32-12112
Darwin 11 42223213
Townsville 12 42223323
Learmonth 10 42222322
Alice Springs 9 32223213
Norfolk Island 7 32212212
Culgoora 9 32213223
Gingin 10 32223322
Camden 10 32213323
Canberra 9 32213223
Launceston 12 33223323
Hobart 10 33213322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Apr :
Macquarie Island 10 21333322
Casey 22 55532212
Mawson 19 23332226
Davis 13 33433212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 12 1122 3334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Apr 6 Quiet
06 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled for the
UT Day, 03 April. Isolated cases of Active to Minor Storm levels
noted in the Antarctic region. Magnetic conditions are expected
to be Quiet to Unsettled today, 04 April due to the high speed
wind stream and return to Quiet conditions 05-06 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Apr 119
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 99
Apr 90
May 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Apr 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Apr 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Apr 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies for HF communications are
expected to be around predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced
for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Apr
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 7.9 p/cc Temp: 87500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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