[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 April 15 issued 2330 UT on 02 Apr 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 3 10:30:29 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 03 APRIL - 05 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Apr: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Apr 04 Apr 05 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day 02 April. The
largest flare was a C1.3 X-ray flare at 02/0534. This flare was
associated with a CME and occurred around the northeast limb.
Solar wind speed was moderate ranging from 390km to 490km over
the last 24 hours with the IMF Bz component dipping southward
for a couple hours reaching -10nT at 02/2023UT. Solar flare activity
is expected to remain at Very Low to Low levels for the next
three days. The coronal hole high speed wind stream is expected
to reach approximately 550 km/s and remain elevated today and
tomorrow. Region 2302 (N12) which previously produced an M-flare
is due to return around limb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Apr : A K
Australian Region 8 12223223
Cocos Island 8 12222233
Darwin 8 22222223
Townsville 9 22223223
Learmonth 10 22223233
Alice Springs 8 22222223
Norfolk Island 8 12223223
Culgoora 8 12223223
Gingin 10 12323233
Camden 8 12223223
Canberra 8 12223223
Melbourne 9 3222322-
Launceston 14 13333234
Hobart 9 12223233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Apr :
Macquarie Island 11 01234233
Casey 18 35432233
Mawson 33 33332357
Davis 36 23443357
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 18 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 1112 2432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Apr 14 Unsettled to Active
04 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 31 March and
is current for 2-3 Apr. Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled
with an isolated period of Active conditions observed at Launceston
for the UT Day 02 April. Isolated cases of Storm levels noted
in the Antarctic region at the end of the UT day, 02 April. Magnetic
conditions are expected to be mostly Unsettled to Active today,
03 April due to the high speed wind stream. Expect mostly Unsettled
conditions on 04 April and a return to mostly Quiet conditions
on 05 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Apr 120
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 99
Apr 90
May 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Apr 90 Near predicted monthly values
04 Apr 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Apr 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 9 was issued
on 1 April and is current for 2-3 Apr. Maximum useable frequencies
for HF communications are expected to be around predicted monthly
values to slightly depressed today. The ionosphere may be slightly
to moderately disturbed today and tomorrow due to weak geomagnetic
storm possibly causing minor disruption in HF communication particularly
at higher latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Apr
Speed: 409 km/sec Density: 8.4 p/cc Temp: 51900 K Bz: 7 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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