[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 September 14 issued 2333 UT on 28 Sep 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 29 09:33:49 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 SEPTEMBER - 01 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Sep: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.1 0258UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 1737UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Sep: 181/134
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Sep 30 Sep 01 Oct
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 190/143 195/147
COMMENT: Solar activity increased significantly on Sep 28. Active
region 2173 (S17W39) produced an M5.1 level event at 0258UT with
associated Type II radio sweep (estimated shock speed 638 km/s).
This event appears unlikely to be geoeffective. AR 2173 also
produced a C6.3 level flare at 0708UT. A narrow NE directed CME
was observed in LASCO C3 imagery at 0730UT. AR 2173 produced
an M1.0 level flare at 1733UT. Regions 2172 (S11W17) and 2175
(N15W38) also showed increased activity over the period. Solar
wind speed declined to 380 km/s over the first few hours of the
UT day before increasing again to around 440 km/s during the
mid part of the UT day, declining again to around 400 km/s at
the end of the day. The IMF Bz component showed mild fluctuations
of +/-5nT with sustained mild negative bias 09-16UT. Mildly disturbed
solar wind conditions are likely to persist next three days.
Expect moderate to high solar activity with a number of visible
active regions having potential for further M-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 22123221
Cocos Island 5 22122220
Darwin 7 22123222
Townsville 7 22123221
Learmonth 7 22123221
Alice Springs 7 22123221
Norfolk Island 5 21023111
Culgoora 6 12123221
Gingin 6 22113220
Camden 6 12123221
Canberra 3 11013110
Launceston 9 22224222
Hobart 7 13123221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Sep :
Macquarie Island 8 11124320
Casey 11 34322222
Mawson 22 44222454
Davis 12 23333232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Sep :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16 4442 3122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Oct 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid
latitudes with Unsettled conditions observed 12-15UT. Quiet to
Active conditions observed at high latitudes. In the IPS magnetometer
data for 28 Sep, a weak (10nT) impulse was observed at 1315UT.
Expect a similar range of conditions next three days due to persistence
of the present slightly elevated solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF propagation conditions observed
and expected next three days at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Sep 106
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Darwin enhanced 25% 10-14UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to slightly
enhanced over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 72
Sep 88
Oct 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Sep 95 Near predicted monthly values
30 Sep 95 Near predicted monthly values
01 Oct 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions mostly normal to
enhanced all regions. Solar EUV radiation is continuing to rise
with developing active sunspot regions, which should support
normal to enhanced ionospheric propagation conditions next three
days. Mildly elevated geomagnetic activity may produce periods
of disturbance Antarctic region, possibly extending briefly to
S Aus /NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Sep
Speed: 411 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 76100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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