[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 September 14 issued 2330 UT on 29 Sep 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 30 09:30:31 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 SEPTEMBER - 02 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Sep: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Sep: 175/129
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Sep 01 Oct 02 Oct
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 185/138 175/129
COMMENT: The 10.7 cm solar flux was 175 on Sep 29 and is expected
to rise to a local maximum during the next 2-3 days before slowly
declining again. Solar X-ray flare activity was low during Sep
29. AR 2177 produced the largest flare of the day, a C5.4 event
peaking at 05:54 UT. Several solar active regions have the potential
to release an M class flare today and there is a small chance
of an X ray flare. Solar activity is expected to be moderate
during Sep 30 to Oct 1. GONG H alpha images show two 20-degrees
long filaments located in the western hemisphere. They are stable
at the time of this report. There are also no Earthward directed
CMEs. The solar wind speed declined to about 350 km/s and the
magnitude of the IMF is about 6 nT. The Bz component has been
fluctuating in the approximate range -5 nT to +5 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 12232132
Cocos Island 5 12211131
Darwin 8 12222233
Townsville 8 12233122
Learmonth 10 22232233
Alice Springs 7 12222132
Norfolk Island 7 11233121
Culgoora 8 12233122
Gingin 11 21232243
Camden 9 12233132
Canberra 4 01122122
Launceston 9 12233232
Hobart 9 11233232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Sep :
Macquarie Island 13 11453121
Casey 17 34432143
Mawson 31 23322375
Davis 14 23322153
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Sep :
Darwin 13 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1212 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Oct 6 Quiet
02 Oct 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The solar wind speed has been gradually declining. Isolated
disturbed intervals are possible because of sustained intervals
of weakly southward IMF conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected
to be enhanced due to elevated solar UV flux.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Sep 117
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 55% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 72
Sep 88
Oct 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Sep 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Oct 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Oct 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions were mostly enhanced
to strongly enhanced throughout all regions on Sep 29. Conditions
were enhanced up to 70% during day time intervals above Niue.
Conditions are expected to remain enhanced during the next 3
days due to increasing solar UV flux.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Sep
Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 71300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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