[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 September 14 issued 2331 UT on 27 Sep 2014

Sun Sep 28 09:31:53 EST 2014

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 SEPTEMBER - 30 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Sep: 181/134

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Sep             29 Sep             30 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            185/138            185/138

COMMENT: A weak, slow E-directed CME was observed in LASCO imagery 
after 09UT. This was probably associated with a reported impulsive 
M1 level flare at 0837UT. A number of active regions now in the 
solar western hemisphere show potential for further C- to M-class 
activity. East limb activity indicates possible emergence of 
new active regions in the next few days. Solar wind parameters 
remain slightly elevated. Solar wind speed declined very slowly 
over the UT day but remains at around 400 km/s at the time of 
report issue. The IMF Bz component sustained mild southward bias 
01-06, 08-12, 14-18UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 27 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   23332222
      Cocos Island         5   22222210
      Darwin              10   32332222
      Townsville          11   33332222
      Learmonth           11   33332222
      Alice Springs        9   23332212
      Norfolk Island       7   23321211
      Culgoora            10   23332222
      Gingin              12   33332322
      Camden              10   23332222
      Canberra             8   22332211
      Launceston          13   23343322
      Hobart              12   23343212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    23   34554311
      Casey               12   44322212
      Mawson              26   64433342
      Davis               22   54533232

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Sep : 
      Darwin              14   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             5   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             13   2332 3333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Sep    12    Unsettled
29 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled
30 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Most regional low to mid latitude stations observed 
Unsettled conditions over the first half of the UT day, becoming 
mostly Quiet later. Unsettled to Active conditions maintained 
for most of the UT day at high latitudes. Expect a similar range 
of conditions next three days as the present slightly elevated 
solar wind stream is likely to persist.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF propagation conditions observed 
and expected next three days at high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
27 Sep    99

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed 15% 03-06UT, 
      Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Townsville enhanced 20% local day,
      Depressed to 30% around local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with
      periods of disturbance.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      72
Sep      88
Oct      84

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Sep    90    Near predicted monthly values
29 Sep    90    Near predicted monthly values
30 Sep    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions mostly normal to 
enhanced Equatorial/Aus/NZ regions. Increased geomagnetic activity 
may produce periods of disturbance Antarctic region, possibly 
extending to S Aus /NZ regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Sep
Speed: 442 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    88200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.