[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 September 14 issued 2338 UT on 26 Sep 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 27 09:38:50 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 SEPTEMBER - 29 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Sep: 170/124
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Sep 28 Sep 29 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 175/129
COMMENT: A long-duration flare reaching C8 level at 0544UT was
produced by Active Region 2172 (S08E08). An impulsive C7.9 level
flare was produced by AR 2177 (N12E75) at 1618UT. AR 2171 (S12W15)
and 2172 showed growth over the UT day with increased flare potential.
A fast E-directed CME first visible in LASCO C2 imagery after
0428UT was associated with an eruption behind the E limb and
is unlikely to be geoeffective. Isolated C-to M-class flare events
are expected next three days. Solar wind parameters remain slightly
elevated with solar wind speed around 440 km/s. The IMF Bz component
fluctuated +/-5nT over the UT day with no sustained Bz-negative
periods.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 26 Sep : A K
Australian Region 12 23234223
Cocos Island 9 2222332-
Darwin 12 23234223
Townsville 12 2323422-
Learmonth 15 23235322
Alice Springs 12 2323422-
Norfolk Island 10 23233222
Culgoora 11 23224223
Gingin 17 3223533-
Camden 11 23224223
Canberra 8 13223222
Launceston 13 23324323
Hobart 13 23334322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Sep :
Macquarie Island 28 2334562-
Casey 22 4543323-
Mawson 27 5433435-
Davis 25 44444253
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Sep :
Darwin 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 12 4232 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Sep 12 Unsettled
28 Sep 12 Unsettled
29 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Unsettled to Active
at high latitudes and Quiet to Unsettled at low to mid latitudes.
Most low/mid latitude stations observed Unsettled or briefly
Active conditions 03-06, 09-12 and 12-15UT. Expect similar conditions
next three days due to persistence of the present slightly enhanced
solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF propagation conditions observed
and expected next three days at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Sep 96
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced to 40% during local day.
Enhanced to 70% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced to 20% 08-11UT,
Depressed to 20% 11-16UT,
Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with extended
periods of disturbance.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 72
Sep 88
Oct 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Sep 90 Near predicted monthly values
28 Sep 90 Near predicted monthly values
29 Sep 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions mostly normal to
enhanced Equatorial/Aus/NZ regions. Increased geomagnetic activity
may produce periods of disturbance Antarctic region, possibly
extending to S Aus /NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Sep
Speed: 443 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 104000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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