[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 September 14 issued 2330 UT on 24 Sep 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 25 09:30:16 EST 2014 

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 SEPTEMBER - 27 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.3 23/2317UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Sep: 145/99


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Sep             26 Sep             27 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            155/109            160/114

COMMENT: An isolated short-lived M2 level flare occurred in AR2172 
(S11E32) at 23/2317. There was an associated Type II radio sweep 
observed on the Culgoora Radiospectrograph with estimated shock 
speed 500 km/s. A W-directed CME of about 120 degrees angular 
extent became visible in LASCO C2 imagery after 00UT. Flare origin 
and CME characteristics suggest this event is unlikely to be 
geoeffective. This region also produced a C7 level flare and 
Type IV radio sweep at 1750UT. Solar wind speed remains slightly 
elevated at ~400 km/s. IMF Bz component showed moderate fluctuations 
to +/-7nT with some sustained periods of moderate negative bias. 
Expect low solar activity next three days with the chance of 
isolated C- to M-class events. Expect continuing mildly elevated 
solar wind parameters.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 24 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   22233332
      Cocos Island         9   22133322
      Darwin              12   23233323
      Townsville          12   22233333
      Learmonth           12   33133332
      Alice Springs       11   22233332
      Norfolk Island       9   22233321
      Culgoora            11   22233332
      Gingin              15   32234432
      Camden              12   23233332
      Canberra            10   22233322
      Launceston          17   33344332
      Hobart              16   23344332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    26   34455431
      Casey               17   34343323
      Mawson              34   44443654
      Davis               25   33443632

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Sep : 
      Darwin              15   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             22                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   3222 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Sep    12    Unsettled
26 Sep    12    Unsettled
27 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Slightly elevated solar wind speed combined with some 
sustained periods of moderate Southward IMF Bz component resulted 
in Unsettled to Active geomagnetic conditions at high latitudes 
and mostly Unsettled conditions at low to mid latitudes. Expect 
similar conditions next three days as the solar wind stream is 
likely to maintain this configuration.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF propagation conditions observed 
and expected next three days at high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Sep    84

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced 20% local day, depressed to 20% local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed to 15% local day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Norfolk Island depressed 15% local day,
      Perth depressed 10% local day, spread-F observed 
      after local dawn.
      Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Extended periods of mild disturbance.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      72
Sep      88
Oct      84

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Sep    85    Near predicted monthly values
26 Sep    85    Near predicted monthly values
27 Sep    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Rising solar EUV radiation should result in reasonable 
ionospheric propagation conditions next three days. Minor to 
moderate variability possible Equatorial/N Aus regions especially 
around local dawn. Periods of disturbance possible Antarctic 
region due to increased geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Sep
Speed: 415 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:    76900 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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