[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 September 14 issued 2337 UT on 23 Sep 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 24 09:37:47 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 SEPTEMBER - 26 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.3 2317UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Sep: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Sep 25 Sep 26 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 145/99 150/105
COMMENT: No significant X-ray activity observed over the past
23 hours. A partial-halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery
after 0736UT. STEREO imagery indicates a far-sided event. Solar
wind speed was steady at around 400 km/s. The IMF Bz component
sustained mild negative bias 08-13 and 15-19UT. An M2 level event
is in progress at the time of report issue, with associated Type
II radio sweep observed on the Culgoora radiospectrograph. Expect
low solar activity next three days with the chance of isolated
C- to M-class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 21122322
Cocos Island 5 11122320
Darwin 8 22122323
Townsville 7 21122322
Learmonth 8 22222322
Alice Springs 7 21122322
Norfolk Island 6 21122222
Culgoora 5 11122222
Gingin 8 21122332
Camden 6 11122322
Canberra 3 10021221
Launceston 8 11232322
Hobart 7 21122322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Sep :
Macquarie Island 9 11134321
Casey 12 34322322
Mawson 24 53222553
Davis 21 33333631
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Sep :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 1322 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Sep 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Active at high
latitudes. Conditions at low to mid latitudes were generally
Quiet becoming briefly Unsettled 15-18UT at some stations. Expect
mostly Quiet conditions next three days with the chance of isolated
Unsettled intervals.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Sep 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed to 15% 02-07UT, enhanced to 15% 11-14UT,
Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Minor to moderate depressions around local dawn,
Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 72
Sep 88
Oct 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Sep 85 Near predicted monthly values
25 Sep 85 Near predicted monthly values
26 Sep 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Rising solar EUV radiation should result in reasonable
ionospheric propagation conditions next three days. Minor to
moderate variability possible Equatorial/N Aus regions especially
around local dawn. Periods of disturbance possible Antarctic
region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Sep
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 90900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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