[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 September 14 issued 2330 UT on 22 Sep 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 23 09:30:40 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 SEPTEMBER - 25 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Sep: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Sep 24 Sep 25 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low with only a C1 class flare
from Active Region 2173 (S15 E51) observed at 1951UT. Solar wind
speed remained at around 450 km/s. Following a sector boundary
crossing at 02UT, the Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic
Field maintained a mild Southward bias from 02 to 16UT. Expect
low activity next three days with the chance of isolated C- to
M-class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 22223212
Cocos Island 4 11112211
Darwin 8 22223222
Townsville 7 22223212
Learmonth 9 22224212
Alice Springs 6 11223212
Norfolk Island 4 11222110
Culgoora 7 12223212
Gingin 7 21223212
Camden 6 12223211
Canberra 5 11123111
Launceston 10 22234212
Hobart 7 21223212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Sep :
Macquarie Island 13 01345220
Casey 11 33323213
Mawson 21 34322454
Davis 13 23433223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Sep :
Darwin 19 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 46 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2321 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mild negative solar wind IMF Bz during the mid part
of the UT day resulted in periods of Unsettled to Active geomagnetic
conditions at high latitudes. Conditions at low to mid latitudes
remained mostly Quiet, becoming briefly Unsettled 12-15UT. Expect
mostly Quiet conditions next three days with the chance of isolated
Unsettled intervals.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Sep 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 72
Sep 88
Oct 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Sep 90 Near predicted monthly values
24 Sep 90 Near predicted monthly values
25 Sep 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Niue depressed 30% 00-04UT. Enhanced to 30% after local
dawn. Darwin depressed 30% around local dawn. Norfolk Island
depressed 15% around local dawn. Otherwise conditions near predicted
monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Sep
Speed: 525 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 142000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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