[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 September 14 issued 2330 UT on 21 Sep 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 22 09:30:17 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 SEPTEMBER - 24 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Sep: 124/77
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Sep 23 Sep 24 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at low levels during the last
24 hours. Today's largest event was a C5 flare from region 2166
(N11W55). The flare lasted approximately an hour and it peaked
at 1153UT. No earthward directed CME was observed. Solar wind
speed increased to around 600 km/s in the first half of the UT
day today and then gradually decreased to around 450 km/s by
2300UT. The Bz component of IMF stayed mostly positive up to
around +5 nT during the UT day today. Solar activity is expected
to stay at low levels for the next three days with some possibility
of isolated M-class activity during this period. ACE EPAM data
indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 21/0215UT,
which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over
next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 23211011
Cocos Island 3 13111010
Darwin 6 23211122
Townsville 7 23221122
Learmonth 6 23221121
Alice Springs 5 23211021
Norfolk Island 2 12110010
Culgoora 4 13211011
Gingin 4 23110012
Camden 4 13211011
Canberra 3 13200000
Launceston 8 24312111
Hobart 4 13210011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Sep :
Macquarie Island 2 13100000
Casey 10 43420011
Mawson 12 34311114
Davis 11 23421014
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Sep :
Darwin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 82 (Minor storm)
Canberra 62 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2211 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Sep 5 Quiet
23 Sep 5 Quiet
24 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions were observed
today with some active periods on high latitudes as the earth
is passing through a high speed solar wind sector. Mostly quiet
conditions may be expected for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the
last 24 hours. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected
for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Sep 85
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 72
Sep 88
Oct 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Sep 90 Near predicted monthly values
23 Sep 90 Near predicted monthly values
24 Sep 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the
Aus/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar HF
conditions may be expected for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Sep
Speed: 493 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 171000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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