[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 September 14 issued 2330 UT on 20 Sep 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 21 09:30:20 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 SEPTEMBER - 23 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Sep: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Sep 22 Sep 23 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at low levels during the last
24 hours. Two C1 flares were observed, one from region 2171 at
1254 UT and the other one from region 2172 at 1714 UT. No earthward
directed CME was observed. Solar wind speed increased to around
550 km/s in the second half of the UT day today. The Bz component
of IMF varied mostly between +/-6 nT during the first half and
stayed mostly positive up to +5 nT during the second half of
the UT day today. Solar activity is expected to stay at low levels
for the next three days with some possibility of isolated M-class
activity during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Sep: Mostly quiet with
isolated unsettled and active periods on high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 20 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 22112202
Cocos Island 2 21102100
Darwin 6 32112202
Townsville 5 22112212
Learmonth 7 32113202
Alice Springs 4 21112202
Norfolk Island 4 22012111
Culgoora 5 22112212
Gingin 7 32113202
Camden 6 22113202
Canberra 2 11012101
Launceston 7 22113312
Hobart 5 22113201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Sep :
Macquarie Island 6 11114211
Casey 17 54432212
Mawson 12 43322223
Davis 8 33322111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Sep :
Darwin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 41 (Unsettled)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 22 4532 3432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Sep 6 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Sep 5 Quiet
23 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions were observed today with some
unsettled and active periods on high latitudes as the earth is
passing through a high speed solar wind sector. Conditions may
stay at unsettled levels on 21 September and then gradually decline
to and stay at quiet levels on the following two days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the last
24 hours. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for the
next three days with some possibility of minor MUF depressions
and minor degradations in conditions on 21 September on high
latitude circuits.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Sep 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 72
Sep 88
Oct 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Sep 90 Near predicted monthly values
22 Sep 95 Near predicted monthly values
23 Sep 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ
regions over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar HF conditions
may be expected for the next three days with some possibility
of minor MUF depressions and minor degradations in conditions
on 21 September in the Southern parts of this region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Sep
Speed: 437 km/sec Density: 8.5 p/cc Temp: 190000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list