[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 September 14 issued 2330 UT on 19 Sep 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 20 09:30:24 EST 2014 

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Sep: 122/75


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Sep             21 Sep             22 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at low levels during the last 
24 hours. The largest event of this period was a C3.3 flare at 
1832 UT from region 2171(S09E65). No earthward directed CME was 
observed. Solar wind speed increased to around 500 km/s in the 
second half of the UT day today while the Bz component of IMF 
varied mostly between +/-8 nT. Solar activity is expected to 
stay at low levels for the next three days with some possibility 
of M-class activity during this period. ACE EPAM data indicates 
an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 19/1935UT, which 
can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over next 
24-36 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 
with isolated active periods

Estimated Indices 19 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   23323322
      Cocos Island         7   22322211
      Darwin              12   23422323
      Townsville          13   23433322
      Learmonth           13   33333322
      Alice Springs       11   23323322
      Norfolk Island      10   23323321
      Culgoora            11   23323322
      Gingin              12   32324322
      Camden              11   23323322
      Canberra            10   23323321
      Launceston          18   33334433
      Hobart              14   33323432    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    21   25344432
      Casey               15   33433332
      Mawson              25   54433344
      Davis               19   43433343

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Sep : 
      Darwin              35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              13   (Quiet)
      Canberra            27   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             24                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   2111 1133     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Sep     7    Quiet to Unsettled
21 Sep     5    Quiet
22 Sep     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled condition with some active periods 
were observed today as the earth is passing through a high speed 
solar wind sector. Conditions may stay at unsettled levels on 
20 September and then gradually decline to and stay at quiet 
levels on the following two days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the last 
24 hours with periods of minor MUF enhancements and also MUF 
depressions in some high latitude locations. Nearly similar HF 
conditions may be expected on 20 September. Conditions are expected 
to remain normal on 21 and 22 September.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Sep   102

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      72
Sep      88
Oct      84

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Sep    90    Near predicted monthly values
21 Sep    95    Near predicted monthly values
22 Sep    95    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ 
regions over the last 24 hours with periods of minor MUF enhancements 
and also MUF depressions in the southern regions. Nearly similar 
HF conditions may be expected on 20 September. Conditions are 
expected to remain normal on 21 and 22 September.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+04   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Sep
Speed: 366 km/sec  Density:    5.5 p/cc  Temp:    25400 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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