[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 September 14 issued 2330 UT on 18 Sep 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 19 09:30:18 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 SEPTEMBER - 21 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0841UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Sep: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Sep 20 Sep 21 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity increased to moderate levels today.
Today's largest event was an M1.2 flare from region 2169(N05E53).
The flare peaked at 0841 and was associated with a Type II radio
burst. No earthward directed CME was observed. Three C-class
flares were also observed during the last 24 hours. Solar wind
speed stayed between 350 and 380 km/s during most parts of the
UT day today while the Bz component of IMF stayed mostly positive
up to around 7 nT. Periods of negative Bz (up to -7nT) were observed
after 1700UT. Solar activity is expected to stay at low levels
for the next three days with some possibility of M-class activity
during this period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Sep: Mostly quiet
with isolated unsettled periods.
Estimated Indices 18 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 22211122
Cocos Island 4 22211021
Darwin 6 23211122
Townsville 6 32211122
Learmonth 6 32211122
Alice Springs 5 22211122
Norfolk Island 2 22100011
Culgoora 8 42211122
Gingin 6 32100132
Camden 5 22201122
Canberra 2 21100021
Launceston 5 22211122
Hobart 4 2220012-
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Sep :
Macquarie Island 2 21100011
Casey 8 33311122
Mawson 15 22111163
Davis 6 22211131
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Sep :
Darwin 7 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2100 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Sep 5 Quiet
20 Sep 5 Quiet
21 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained mostly at Quiet levels
today with isolated Unsettled periods. Quiet conditions are
expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the last
24 hours with minor enhancements in MUFs at times in some regions.
Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Sep 95
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 72
Sep 88
Oct 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Sep 95 Near predicted monthly values
20 Sep 95 Near predicted monthly values
21 Sep 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ
regions over the last 24 hours with minor enhancements in MUFs
at times in some parts of this region. Nearly similar HF conditions
may be expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Sep
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 17200 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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