[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 September 14 issued 2330 UT on 17 Sep 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 18 09:30:15 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 SEPTEMBER - 20 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Sep: 125/78


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Sep             19 Sep             20 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             120/72

COMMENT: Low levels of solar activity have been observed over 
the last 24 hours. Today's largest event was a C7 flare from 
region 2158 (N15W93). This flare started at 1926UT, peaked at 
1948 UT and ended at 2013 UT. Solar wind speed stayed around 
380 km/s during most parts of the UT day today while the Bz component 
of IMF stayed mostly positive up to around 5 nT. Solar activity 
is expected to stay at low levels for the next three days with 
some possibility of M-class activity during this period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11110222
      Cocos Island         4   2-111221
      Darwin               5   22111222
      Townsville           4   11011222
      Learmonth            4   11111222
      Alice Springs        3   11100222
      Norfolk Island       2   11000221
      Culgoora             3   11------
      Gingin               3   21100211
      Camden               4   11110222
      Canberra             1   00000111
      Launceston           5   12111222
      Hobart               2   11100211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     1   11000010
      Casey                5   33200001
      Mawson               7   43100211
      Davis                5   33210100

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Sep : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   2212 2122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Sep     5    Quiet
19 Sep     5    Quiet
20 Sep     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at Quiet levels today. 
Nearly similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the last 
24 hours with up to 35% enhancements in MUFs at times in some 
regions. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for the 
next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Sep    95

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      72
Sep      88
Oct      84

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Sep    95    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to 20%
19 Sep    95    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to 20%
20 Sep    95    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to 20%

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ 
regions over the last 24 hours with up to 35% enhancements in 
MUFs at times in some parts of this region. Nearly similar HF 
conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Sep
Speed: 401 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:    54800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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