[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 September 14 issued 2330 UT on 17 Sep 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 18 09:30:15 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 SEPTEMBER - 20 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Sep: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Sep 19 Sep 20 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Low levels of solar activity have been observed over
the last 24 hours. Today's largest event was a C7 flare from
region 2158 (N15W93). This flare started at 1926UT, peaked at
1948 UT and ended at 2013 UT. Solar wind speed stayed around
380 km/s during most parts of the UT day today while the Bz component
of IMF stayed mostly positive up to around 5 nT. Solar activity
is expected to stay at low levels for the next three days with
some possibility of M-class activity during this period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 11110222
Cocos Island 4 2-111221
Darwin 5 22111222
Townsville 4 11011222
Learmonth 4 11111222
Alice Springs 3 11100222
Norfolk Island 2 11000221
Culgoora 3 11------
Gingin 3 21100211
Camden 4 11110222
Canberra 1 00000111
Launceston 5 12111222
Hobart 2 11100211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Sep :
Macquarie Island 1 11000010
Casey 5 33200001
Mawson 7 43100211
Davis 5 33210100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Sep :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2212 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Sep 5 Quiet
19 Sep 5 Quiet
20 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at Quiet levels today.
Nearly similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the last
24 hours with up to 35% enhancements in MUFs at times in some
regions. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for the
next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Sep 95
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 72
Sep 88
Oct 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Sep 95 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to 20%
19 Sep 95 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to 20%
20 Sep 95 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to 20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ
regions over the last 24 hours with up to 35% enhancements in
MUFs at times in some parts of this region. Nearly similar HF
conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Sep
Speed: 401 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 54800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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