[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 September 14 issued 2341 UT on 14 Sep 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 15 09:41:25 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.5    0223UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Sep: 139/93


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Sep             16 Sep             17 Sep
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   138/92             135/89             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours with 
the largest flare being a M1.5 event from region 2157 (currently 
at S15W58) at 0216UT. There is currently 6 spot groups on the 
visible disk, of which region 2157 continues to decline while 
region 2158 (N17W51) remains relatively stable. Two regions have 
undergone some growth over the last 24 hours, these being region 
2164 (S13W11) and 2166 (N12E45). Solar wind continued to decline 
over the last 24 hours from being slightly greater than 600km/s 
between 00UT-02UT to being just under 500km/s at the time of 
this report. Bz remained northward for the majority of the UT 
day, also declining in magnitude from +8nT to +3nT. Solar wind 
speed is expected to continue to decline over the next 24 hours 
with an expected increase in the latter half of the UT day on 
16Sep. Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate for the 
next 3 days with the chance of further M-class events.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21100001
      Cocos Island         2   21110000
      Darwin               3   12101102
      Townsville           3   32100001
      Learmonth            1   21100000
      Alice Springs        1   21000001
      Norfolk Island       0   11000000
      Culgoora             1   11000001
      Gingin               1   21000000
      Camden               1   11000001
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Launceston           1   11100000
      Hobart               1   11100000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     0   10000000
      Casey                8   33321121
      Mawson               3   22111101
      Davis                4   22111102

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Sep : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville          10   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             10   4231 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Sep     4    Quiet
16 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active
17 Sep    11    Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet 
conditions expected for 15Sep-16Sep with possible Active periods 
towards the end of the UT day 16Sep. Unsettled conditions expected 
for 17Sep.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Sep    89

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      72
Sep      88
Oct      84

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Sep    90    Near predicted monthly values
16 Sep    85    Near predicted monthly values
17 Sep    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed for Equatorial and Northern 
AUS regions during local day and night. Normal ionospheric support 
for Southern AUS/NZ regions and improving ionospheric support 
for Antarctic regions. MUF's expected to be near predicted monthly 
values for all regions over the next 2 days with with possible 
disturbed periods and MUF depressions of ~15% for Southern AUS/NZ 
and Antarctic regions on 16Sep-17Sep.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Sep
Speed: 620 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    34900 K  Bz:  13 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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