[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 September 14 issued 2349 UT on 13 Sep 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 14 09:49:58 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 SEPTEMBER - 16 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Sep: 145/99
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with the
largest flare being a C3.7 event from region 2157 (S14W38) at
1254UT. Solar wind has gradually declined from being over 750km/s
between the period of 00UT and 08UT to be ~550km/s at the time
of this report. Bz remained northward for the entire UT day,
reaching a maximum of ~20nT between the same period before declining
to be currently ~6nT. Solar wind speed is expected to remain
at moderate to strong levels for the next 24 hours. Solar activity
is expected to be Low to Moderate for the next 3 days with the
chance of further M-class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 13 Sep : A K
Australian Region 10 32412222
Cocos Island 9 32411221
Darwin 11 33412222
Townsville 16 53412223
Learmonth 12 43412222
Alice Springs 10 33412221
Norfolk Island 7 32301222
Culgoora 10 32412222
Gingin 9 42311221
Camden 10 32412222
Canberra 6 32301111
Launceston 11 42412222
Hobart 6 32311111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Sep :
Macquarie Island 5 32211011
Casey 25 45632123
Mawson 22 35622222
Davis 15 34522122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Sep :
Darwin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 87 (Minor storm)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 35
Planetary 38 5423 2656
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
15 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Sep 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Active conditions observed over the last 24
hours. Solar wind speed was at very strong levels (greater than
700km/s) and Bz remained northward for the entire UT day reaching
a maximum of ~20nT between 00UT and 08UT before declining to
be currently 6nT. Unsettled conditions expected for the next
24 hours with possible Active periods should any Bz southward
excursions occur from the passage of the recent X class flare
CME. Mostly Quiet conditions expected for 15Sep and 16Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0215UT 11/09, Ended at 2225UT 12/09
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Sep 99
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 72
Sep 88
Oct 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Sep 95 Near predicted monthly values
15 Sep 90 Near predicted monthly values
16 Sep 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed for Equatorial and Northern
AUS regions during local day and night. Normal to enhanced MUFs
observed for Southern AUS/NZ regions and continued poor ionospheric
support for Antarctica due to the recent polar cap absorption
event. MUF's expected to be near predicted monthly values for
all regions over the next 3 days with ionospheric recovery anticipated
for Antarctic regions over the next 24-48 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Sep
Speed: 458 km/sec Density: 9.9 p/cc Temp: 159000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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