[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 September 14 issued 2332 UT on 15 Sep 2014

Tue Sep 16 09:32:08 EST 2014

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 SEPTEMBER - 18 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Sep: 133/87

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Sep             17 Sep             18 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: Low levels of solar activity have been observed over 
the last 24 hours. Today's largest event was a C3 flare at 0027 
UT from region 2157 (S15W74). Solar wind speed showed a gradual 
decline from 490 to 430 km/s during the UT day today while the 
Bz component of IMF stayed mostly positive up to around 4 nT. 
Solar activity is expected to stay at low levels for the next 
three days with some possibility of M-class activity during this 
period. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement 
event beginning 15/0210UT, which can be a precursor to increased 
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours. Region 2149 (N9) 
which previously produced M-flare(s) is due to return around 
16 Sep.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 15 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110001
      Cocos Island         1   01100001
      Darwin               3   21110012
      Townsville           2   11110011
      Learmonth            1   11110001
      Alice Springs        2   11110002
      Norfolk Island       0   10000000
      Culgoora             1   11010001
      Gingin               1   11100001
      Camden               1   11110001
      Canberra             2   31000000
      Launceston           2   11110012
      Hobart               1   11100001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000001
      Casey                8   34320001
      Mawson               7   12331013
      Davis                6   22330011

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Sep : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1010 1201     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Sep     6    Quiet
17 Sep    10    Unsettled to Active
18 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels today. Geomagnetic 
activity may show enhancements up to active levels on 17 September 
and up to unsettled levels on 18 September.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with some periods of minor 
to mild MUF depressions on low latitudes, were observed today. 
HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on 16 and 
18 September with the possibility of minor to mild MUF depressions 
in degradations in HF conditions on 17 September and at times 
on 18 September due to expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity 
levels on 17 and 18 September.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
15 Sep    93

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      72
Sep      88
Oct      84

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Sep    85    Near predicted monthly values
17 Sep    80    Near predicted monthly values
18 Sep    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed for Equatorial and Northern 
AUS regions during local day and night. MUF's expected to be 
mostly near predicted monthly values on 16 and 18 September. 
Minor MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions may be 
observed on 17 September and at times on 18 September.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Sep
Speed: 475 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:    80400 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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