[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 September 14 issued 2346 UT on 10 Sep 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 11 09:46:05 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 SEPTEMBER - 13 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Sep: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.7 1746UT probable all South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Sep: 160/114
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity was High over the last 24 hours with
the most significant event being the X1.6 flare from region 2158
(N16E03) which peaked at 1745UT. A full halo CME has not been
confirmed from LASCO imagery, but given the location it is highly
probable that the majority of this CME is earth directed. Of
the two largest regions currently on disc, region 2157 increased
in magnetic complexity in the last 24 hours while region 2158
magnetic complexity declined after the X-class flare. Solar wind
speed ranged between 340km/s to 390km/s over the UT day. A possible
glancing blow CME from the 09Sep M4.5 flare is anticipated to
arrive within the next 24-36 hours. Bz, the north south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between +6 and
-5nT over the UT day. Solar activity is expected to be Low to
Moderate for the next 3 days with the chance of further M-class
events and possible X-class. Region 2146 (N8) which previously
produced M-flare(s) is due to return in the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 21110113
Cocos Island 3 21110---
Darwin 5 12112113
Townsville 4 22110---
Learmonth 4 21100113
Alice Springs 1 11000---
Norfolk Island 2 21010012
Culgoora 4 21110113
Gingin 2 20100---
Camden 5 21111113
Canberra 1 -0000012
Launceston 5 21111213
Hobart 4 11110113
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Sep :
Macquarie Island 1 10010---
Casey 11 23420---
Mawson 12 51210---
Davis 6 22321112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Sep :
Darwin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 2211 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Sep 12 Unsettled
12 Sep 18 Active
13 Sep 21 Active
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for 11Sep
with possible Minor Storm levels late in the UT day from a glancing
blow CME arrival. Active conditions are expected for 12Sep-13Sep
with possible Minor to Major storm periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
13 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Sep 104
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 72
Sep 88
Oct 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Sep 95 Near predicted monthly values
12 Sep 65 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
13 Sep 65 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed for Equatorial regions and good
ionospheric support for all other regions over the last 24 hours.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Possible
MUF depressions of 20% for Southern AUS/NZ regions and poor ionospheric
support for Antarctic regions for 12Sep-13Sep due to expected
increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Sep
Speed: 383 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 76000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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