[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 September 14 issued 2348 UT on 11 Sep 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 12 09:48:33 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 SEPTEMBER - 14 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.1 1526UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.4 2126UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Sep: 151/106
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 152/107 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours with
two M-class flares. The source of these two flares (M2.1 at 1526UT
and M1.4 at 2126UT) have not been confirmed and are likely to
be from regions about to rotate onto the visible disk. The X-class
flare from yesterday has been confirmed to be a full halo CME
with an arrival time of approx 1300UT on 12Sep +/-6 hrs. Of the
two largest regions currently on disc, regions 2157 and 2158
both declined in size over the last 24 hours. Region 2146 (N8)
which previously produced M-flare(s) is due to return in the
next 24 hours. Region 2146 (N8) which previously produced M-flare(s)
is due to return around 11-12 Sep. Solar wind speed ranged between
350km/s and 400km/s over the UT day. Solar wind parameters are
expected to increase in the next 12 hours with a glancing blow
CME from the 09Sep M4.5 flare. Bz, the north south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between +6 and
-7nT over the UT day. Solar activity is expected to be Low to
Moderate for the next 3 days with the chance of further M-class
events and possible X-class.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 23222012
Cocos Island 3 2212100-
Darwin 7 33211112
Townsville 7 3322201-
Learmonth 6 33122002
Alice Springs 5 2322100-
Norfolk Island 5 23222010
Culgoora 6 23221012
Gingin 6 3212211-
Camden 7 23222112
Canberra 5 23221001
Launceston 10 33332112
Hobart 6 23221012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Sep :
Macquarie Island 13 2344300-
Casey 10 3432201-
Mawson 12 3432222-
Davis 18 34543121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Sep :
Darwin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 2000 1433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Sep 35 Active to Minor Storm
13 Sep 50 Storm Levels
14 Sep 25 Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 11 September
and is current for 11-13 Sep. Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic
conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Active conditions
are expected for the next 24 hours with possible Minor to Major
Storm levels due to glancing blow CME arrival from the 09Sep
M4.5 flare and possible arrival of the X-class flare from 10Sep.
Active to Major Storm levels expected for 13Sep and mostly Active
conditions are expected for 14Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 11 09 2014 1215UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal-fair Fair Poor(PCA)
13 Sep Poor Poor Poor(PCA)
14 Sep Fair Fair Poor(PCA)
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Sep 101
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 72
Sep 88
Oct 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
13 Sep 40 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
14 Sep 40 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 47 was issued on 11
September and is current for 11-12 Sep. Variable HF conditions
observed for Equatorial regions during local night with otherwise
good ionospheric support for all other regions except Antarctica
where a polar cap absorption event currently in progress due
to recent CME activity. MUF depressions of ~20% for Southern
AUS and Northern AUS regions possible over the next 24 hours
due to increased geomagnetic activity. Reduced ionospheric support
expected for all regions on 13Sep-14Sep due to geomagnetic storm
conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Sep
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 42100 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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