[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 September 14 issued 2347 UT on 09 Sep 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 10 09:47:42 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.5 0035UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Sep: 159/113
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours with
the most significant event being the long duration M4.5 flare
from region 2158 (N16E15) which peaked at 0029UT. The bulk of
the CME was ejected to the North-East with the chance of a glancing
blow CME, the earliest arrival time being late in the UT day
on 11Sep. Of the two largest regions currently on disc, regions
2157 and 2158 size and magnetic complexity remained relatively
unchanged over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed declined from
~~430km/s at 00UT to be ~350km/s at the time of this report. Bz,
the north south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
ranged between +5 and -4nT over the UT day. Solar activity is
expected to be Low to Moderate for the next 3 days with the chance
of further M-class events and possible X-class.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 22111122
Cocos Island 3 12010121
Darwin 6 22211123
Townsville 5 22111122
Learmonth 5 22110222
Alice Springs 4 12110122
Norfolk Island 2 22010011
Culgoora 4 22111121
Gingin 5 22110231
Camden 4 22111121
Canberra 3 12110111
Launceston 7 23121222
Hobart 4 12111122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Sep :
Macquarie Island 2 12110001
Casey 13 44322222
Mawson 20 53222254
Davis 19 33322155
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Sep :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 1221 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Sep 5 Quiet
11 Sep 12 Unsettled
12 Sep 18 Active
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 2
days with possible Minor storm periods late in the UT day for
11Sep due to a possible glancing blow CME arrival. Active conditions
expected for 12Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
12 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Sep 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 72
Sep 88
Oct 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Sep 90 Near predicted monthly values
11 Sep 95 Near predicted monthly values
12 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 46 was issued on 9
September and is current for 9-10 Sep. Useable HF communication
frequencies were around predicted monthly values during local
day for Southern AUS/NZ and Equatorial regions. Notable depressed
MUFs for Northern AUS regions during this time. Occasional disturbed
periods for Antarctic regions over the UT day. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 24-48 hours. Possible MUF depressions
of 20% for Southern AUS/NZ regions and poor ionospheric support
for Antarctic regions on 12Sep due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Sep
Speed: 417 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 117000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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