[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 September 14 issued 2347 UT on 08 Sep 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 9 09:47:51 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 SEPTEMBER - 11 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Sep: 164/118
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 162/116 162/116
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with numerous
C-class flares from region 2157 (S14,E17), with the largest being
a C5.1 at 0011UT. Region 2157 size and magnetic complexity remains
relatively unchanged over the last 24 hours, while regions 2155,2158
and 2162 underwent some growth. Solar wind speed increased from
~~350km/s at 00UT to ~420km/s at 05UT and is ~430km/s at the time
of this report. Bz, the north south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field ranged between +5 and -4nT over the UT day. Solar
activity is expected to be Low to Moderate for the next 3 days
with the chance of a M-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 12210012
Cocos Island 2 12210010
Darwin 4 12211112
Townsville 4 12210112
Learmonth 2 02210011
Alice Springs 3 11210012
Norfolk Island 4 23200021
Culgoora 2 11110012
Gingin 3 01210022
Camden 2 11110012
Canberra 1 01100011
Launceston 3 11111022
Hobart 2 11110012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 00000011
Casey 11 24421122
Mawson 13 13321135
Davis 11 24422122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Sep :
Darwin 10 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8 3331 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Sep 5 Quiet
10 Sep 5 Quiet
11 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Sep 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 72
Sep 88
Oct 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Sep 85 Near predicted monthly values
10 Sep 85 Near predicted monthly values
11 Sep 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Useable HF communication frequencies were around predicted
monthly values during local day for Southern AUS/NZ and Equatorial
regions. Notable depressed MUFs for Northern AUS regions during
this time. Depressions of up to 25% occurring during local night
for some stations within Southern AUS/NZ and Northern AUS regions.
Occasional disturbed periods for Antarctic regions over the UT
day. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Sep
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 53400 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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