[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 September 14 issued 2330 UT on 07 Sep 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 8 09:30:19 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 SEPTEMBER - 10 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Sep: 151/106
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 148/102 145/99 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity has been at low level. Regions 2157(S14E44)
and 2159(S20E60) each produced a C7 flare with region 2157 also
producing several lower intensity flares. A CME was observed
in association with the C7 flare for 2159 peaking at 0204UT.
A type II radio burst was also seen in association with this
event. The CME does not appear to be geoeffective as it is directed
mainly to the east. The C7 flare from 2157 peaked at 1943UT.
Satellite imagery to determine the presence and geoeffectiveness
of a CME from this event is not yet available. Solar wind conditions
have returned to nominal following the minor CME impact that
occurred on the 6th. Solar activity is expected to be Moderate
for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 22310001
Cocos Island 3 21310000
Darwin 6 22311112
Townsville 5 22311011
Learmonth 4 22310000
Alice Springs 3 12310001
Norfolk Island 4 22300001
Culgoora 4 12310011
Gingin 3 21300000
Camden 4 12310011
Canberra 2 12200000
Launceston 4 22310101
Hobart 4 22300100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Sep :
Macquarie Island 2 22200000
Casey 9 33421111
Mawson 11 35310111
Davis 8 24311111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Sep :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 2231 1332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Sep 5 Quiet
10 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Some Unsettled periods can be expected for the next
day with Quiet conditions following.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Sep 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 72
Sep 88
Oct 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Sep 85 Near predicted monthly values
09 Sep 90 Near predicted monthly values
10 Sep 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Useable HF communication frequencies were around predicted
monthly values during local daylight with depressions of up to
25% occurring during local night. Expect conditions mostly near
predicted monthly values for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Sep
Speed: 349 km/sec Density: 9.1 p/cc Temp: 41600 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list