[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 October 14 issued 2348 UT on 27 Oct 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 28 10:48:13 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Oct: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M6.9 0026UT probable lower West Pacific
M1.0 0204UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.3 0341UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 0911UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.2 0941UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M6.7 1011UT probable lower European
X2.1 1447UT probable all South American/
Atlantic
M1.4 1742UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Oct: 188/141
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct
Activity Moderate to High Moderate to High Moderate to High
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 150/105 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was High over the last 24 hours with
region 2192 (S12W58) the source of numerous M-class and an X-class
flare. The largest events being a X2.0 at 1447UT, M7.1 at 0034UT
and M6.7 at 1009UT. LASCO imagery indicates no significant CME's
were associated with the M-class flares. No significant change
in region 2192's overall size or magnetic complexity over the
last 24 hours. Solar wind ranged between ~350km/s to ~450km/s
over the UT day. Bz ranged between +6nT and -7nT with notable
sustained southward periods between 06UT-10UT and 17UT-23UT.
Solar activity is expected to be Moderate to High with the chance
of further M-class and X-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 22232222
Cocos Island 5 21221211
Darwin 10 32232223
Townsville 11 32242232
Learmonth 9 23232222
Alice Springs 10 32232223
Norfolk Island 7 22132222
Culgoora 8 22232222
Gingin 9 22232313
Camden 9 22242222
Canberra 7 22231222
Launceston 13 33242233
Hobart 10 23242222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Oct :
Macquarie Island 18 23362312
Casey 19 35433323
Mawson 23 44333345
Davis 26 35553323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Oct :
Darwin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 11 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 3223 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed for
the last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected
for 28Oct-30Oct with possible isolated Active periods over the
next 24 hours for mid to high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Possible sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) over
the forecast period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Oct 122
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 90
Oct 86
Nov 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Oct 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Oct 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Oct 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced ionospheric support observed for all AUS/NZ
regions during local day, continuing into local night for low
latitude stations. Similar conditions are expected for the next
24 hours. MUFs expected to return to near predicted monthly values
on 30th October as the current large active region 2192 rotates
off the visible disk. Possible sudden ionospheric disturbances
(SWFs) over the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Oct
Speed: 367 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 72100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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