[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 October 14 issued 2330 UT on 26 Oct 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 27 10:30:31 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Oct:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X2.0    1056UT  probable   all    European
  M1.0    1216UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.0    1718UT  possible   lower  South American/Atlantic
  M4.2    1815UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/North American
  M1.9    1849UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/North American
  M2.4    2024UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Oct: 217/167


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Oct             28 Oct             29 Oct
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate           Low
Fadeouts     Probable           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   220/170            220/170            210/161

COMMENT: Region 12192 (S13W46) produced the listed flares. The 
region has decreased in area but remains magnetically complex 
(beta-gamma-delta). The other five spot groups appear stable. 
The LASCO images show no CMEs; further images are required for 
the later M2.4 event. ACE data show the solar wind speed range 
was 350-420 km/s with a peak total magnetic field of 7 nT and 
a north-south IMF range of +/-6 nT. Region 2182 (S15) which previously 
produced M-flare(s) is due to return around 26 Oct.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 26 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   21222222
      Cocos Island         5   11222220
      Darwin               9   22222323
      Townsville           7   21322222
      Learmonth            7   21222312
      Alice Springs        7   21222322
      Norfolk Island       6   21222221
      Culgoora             8   22322222
      Gingin               6   21222221
      Camden               8   22322222
      Canberra             5   11222221
      Launceston          11   22323332
      Hobart               9   22322322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    12   22234421
      Casey               15   44432221
      Mawson              26   45533343
      Davis               17   34443223

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Oct : 
      Darwin              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9   3211 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Possible sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) over 
the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Oct   125

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 20-35%
      14-20 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45-70% 00-11 UT. Enhanced 20-35%
      12-18 UT then near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 25-35%
      11-14, 18-20 UT at Darwin. Enhanced 20-30% 02-06,
      11-14, 17-23 UT at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with 20-30% enhancements
      after 09 UT. Near predicted monthly values at Learmonth
      and Perth. Spread F at Hobart 10-17 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      90
Oct      86
Nov      83

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Oct   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Oct   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Oct   120    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 53 was issued on 25 
October and is current for 25-27 Oct. Possible sudden ionospheric 
disturbances (SWFs) over the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Oct
Speed: 385 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:    63800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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