[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 October 14 issued 2330 UT on 26 Oct 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 27 10:30:31 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Oct: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X2.0 1056UT probable all European
M1.0 1216UT possible lower European
M1.0 1718UT possible lower South American/Atlantic
M4.2 1815UT possible lower East Pacific/North American
M1.9 1849UT possible lower East Pacific/North American
M2.4 2024UT possible lower East Pacific/North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Oct: 217/167
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Oct 28 Oct 29 Oct
Activity Moderate to high Moderate Low
Fadeouts Probable Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 220/170 220/170 210/161
COMMENT: Region 12192 (S13W46) produced the listed flares. The
region has decreased in area but remains magnetically complex
(beta-gamma-delta). The other five spot groups appear stable.
The LASCO images show no CMEs; further images are required for
the later M2.4 event. ACE data show the solar wind speed range
was 350-420 km/s with a peak total magnetic field of 7 nT and
a north-south IMF range of +/-6 nT. Region 2182 (S15) which previously
produced M-flare(s) is due to return around 26 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 21222222
Cocos Island 5 11222220
Darwin 9 22222323
Townsville 7 21322222
Learmonth 7 21222312
Alice Springs 7 21222322
Norfolk Island 6 21222221
Culgoora 8 22322222
Gingin 6 21222221
Camden 8 22322222
Canberra 5 11222221
Launceston 11 22323332
Hobart 9 22322322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Oct :
Macquarie Island 12 22234421
Casey 15 44432221
Mawson 26 45533343
Davis 17 34443223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Oct :
Darwin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 3211 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Possible sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) over
the forecast period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Oct 125
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 20-35%
14-20 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 45-70% 00-11 UT. Enhanced 20-35%
12-18 UT then near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 25-35%
11-14, 18-20 UT at Darwin. Enhanced 20-30% 02-06,
11-14, 17-23 UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with 20-30% enhancements
after 09 UT. Near predicted monthly values at Learmonth
and Perth. Spread F at Hobart 10-17 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 90
Oct 86
Nov 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Oct 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Oct 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Oct 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 53 was issued on 25
October and is current for 25-27 Oct. Possible sudden ionospheric
disturbances (SWFs) over the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Oct
Speed: 385 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 63800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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