[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 October 14 issued 2330 UT on 28 Oct 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 29 10:30:30 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 OCTOBER - 31 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Oct: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M6/1B 0332UT probable lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Oct: 167/121
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Oct 30 Oct 31 Oct
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Low
Fadeouts Probable Probable None expected
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 145/99 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was High over the last 24 hours with
region 2192 (S13W72) the source of three M-class and several
C-class flares. The largest event was a M6.6/1B at 0332UT. LASCO
imagery shows no signs of associated CMEs with these flares.
Active region 2192 has decreased in size during the UT day from
~~2700 to ~2100 mils as last observed by Holloman Solar Observatory.
Solar activity is expected to be Moderate to High with the chance
of further M-class and X-class flares due to AR 2192. Solar wind
ranged between ~400km/s to ~450km/s over the UT day. Bz ranged
between +6nT and -7nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 22222322
Cocos Island 5 22121220
Darwin 9 32222322
Townsville 9 32222322
Learmonth 6 22122222
Alice Springs 7 22122322
Norfolk Island 6 22122221
Culgoora 8 22222322
Gingin 8 32122223
Camden 8 22222322
Canberra 5 22122211
Launceston 11 33232322
Hobart 9 23222322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Oct :
Macquarie Island 18 43344421
Casey 19 45432322
Mawson 30 54433553
Davis 27 34553532
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Oct :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 12 2233 2423
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed for
the last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected
to prevail over the next three days with possible isolated Active
periods over the next 24 hours for mid to high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Possible sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) over
the forecast period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Oct 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 90
Oct 86
Nov 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Oct 90 Slightly enhanced to near predicted monthly values
30 Oct 86 Near predicted monthly values
31 Oct 86 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 54 was issued on 27
October and is current for 28-29 Oct. Enhanced to near predicted
ionospheric support observed at low latitudes. Slightly depressed
to near predicted ionospheric support observed at high latitudes.
Expect a gradual return to near predicted values over the next
two days as active region 2192 rotates off the visible disk.
Possible sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) over the forecast
period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Oct
Speed: 401 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 106000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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