[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 October 14 issued 2330 UT on 22 Oct 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 23 10:30:56 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Oct: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M8.7 0201UT probable lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.7 0517UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
X1.7 1428UT probable all South American/Atlantic
M1.4 1557UT possible lower South American/Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct: 216/166
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct
Activity Moderate to high Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 215/165 220/170 220/170
COMMENT: A number of C-class flares as well as the listed events.
AR 12192 (S13E12) continues to grow and produced the X1, M8 and
M2 flares while the M1 originated from over the east limb. AR
12193 (N05W29) has also shown growth. The other three spot groups
are stable. LASCO images show CMEs associated with the M8 and
M2 events but these appear directed out of the ecliptic plane.
There appears to be a minor ejection related to the X flare towards
the east. The solar wind speed declined from a peak of ~600 km/s
to ~450 km/s with the north-south IMF range +/-5 nT. The leading
edge of a recurrent coronal hole is located at 56 degrees west
and should become geo-effective on 23 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Oct : A K
Australian Region 10 32223322
Cocos Island 8 21412311
Darwin 9 22222323
Townsville 8 22223222
Learmonth 9 31223322
Alice Springs 8 31222312
Norfolk Island 6 21122222
Culgoora 9 32223222
Gingin 12 32233422
Camden 9 22223322
Canberra 5 21222211
Launceston 12 33233322
Hobart 11 32233322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Oct :
Macquarie Island 22 33355421
Casey 14 44322322
Mawson 34 54424653
Davis 26 44433544
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Oct :
Darwin 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14 3223 4342
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Oct 16 Quiet to active
24 Oct 13 Unsettled to Active
25 Oct 11 Unsettled
COMMENT: Expected activity due to recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Possible sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) over
the forecast period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Oct 93
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 25-30%
21-22 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced 25-40% 00-08, 11-12, 21-23 UT. Near
predicted monthly values at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 20-35%
20-22 UT at Townsville. No Townsville data 06-19 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to
25% 09-18 UT. Learmonth and Perth depressed to 30%
00-10 UT then near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Mawson depressed to 30% 12-18 UT.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 90
Oct 86
Nov 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Oct 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Oct 90 Near predicted monthly values
25 Oct 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 52 was issued on 22
October and is current for 22-24 Oct. Sudden ionospheric disturbance
~~0130-0300 UT and briefly ~0520 UT. Night spread F observed at
Hobart and Perth. Possible sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs)
over the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Oct
Speed: 582 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 208000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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