[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 October 14 issued 2330 UT on 23 Oct 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 24 10:30:29 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0950UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Oct: 227/177
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct
Activity Moderate to high Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 230/180 230/180 230/180
COMMENT: AR 12192 (S13W07) produced the only M flare of the reporting
period. The region appears stable but retains its ability to
produce large flares. AR 12193 (N05W44) is declining while the
other three spot groups are stable. No CMEs observed in LASCO
images. ACE data solar the solar wind below 480 km/s. The total
field increased slightly over the period to 6 nT with greater
fluctuations in magnetic components since ~13 UT. The north-south
IMF range was -5 to +6 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Oct: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 12122222
Cocos Island 5 11112231
Darwin 8 22222223
Townsville 6 22122222
Learmonth 5 11122222
Alice Springs 6 12122222
Norfolk Island 5 12122122
Culgoora 6 12122222
Gingin 9 21223332
Camden 8 22132232
Canberra 5 12022122
Launceston 10 22233232
Hobart 8 12132232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Oct :
Macquarie Island 17 12255321
Casey 15 44322233
Mawson 30 34323372
Davis 21 33443352
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Oct :
Darwin 50 (Unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 3232 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Oct 16 Unsettled to Active
25 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Remains the chance of isolated active conditions on
24 Oct due to a recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Possible sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) over
the forecast period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Oct 116
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 20-30%
11-14 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced 25-40% 00-05, 10-11, 14-17, 22-23 UT.
Enhanced to 20% at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
Enhanced 30-50% 06-13 UT at Darwin.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced by 20-30%
10-16 UT at eastern Australia stations.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 90
Oct 86
Nov 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Oct 95 Near predicted monthly values
25 Oct 100 Near predicted monthly values
26 Oct 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 52 was issued on 22
October and is current for 22-24 Oct. Night spread F observed
at Hobart 11-19 UT. Possible sudden ionospheric disturbances
(SWFs) over the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Oct
Speed: 465 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 77500 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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